Bristol City vs Millwall Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bristol City 0-2 Millwall.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Bristol City, 25% draw, 44% Millwall — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Millwall at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bristol City vs Millwall
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Sam TickleG
- 19George TannerD
- 16Rob DickieD
- 5Robert AtkinsonD
- 2Lisav Naif EissatD
- 12Jason KnightM
- 4Adam RandellM
- 7Yu HirakawaM
- 23Dominic BallardM
- 20Sam GreenwoodM
- 9Lorent TolajF
- 8Joe WilliamsM
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 17Jed WallaceM
- 18Emil Riis JacobsenF
- 11Sam BellF
- 40Brad CollinsG
- 38Noah EileD
- 27Gibson YahM
- 10Scott TwineM
- 1Lukas JensenG
- 18Ryan LeonardD
- 6Caleb TaylorD
- 5Jake CooperD
- 3Zak SturgeD
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 24Casper De NorreM
- 10Camiel NeghliM
- 11Femi AzeezF
- 19Josh CoburnF
- 7Tairyk ArconteF
- 22Kyrell LisbieF
- 25Luke CundleM
- 17Mark SykesM
- 16Daniel KellyM
- 13Lyndon DykesF
- 15Max CrocombeG
- 23Danny BatthD
- 12Elkan BaggottD
- 31Raees Bangura-WilliamsM
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Millwall
- 29 December 2025Millwall 2–1 Bristol CityChampionship
- 6 December 2025Bristol City 0–1 MillwallChampionship
- 4 March 2025Millwall 0–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 17 August 2024Bristol City 4–3 MillwallChampionship
- 1 January 2024Bristol City 0–1 MillwallChampionship
Leading scorers: Bristol City and Millwall
Bristol City
GoalsAssists
- S. Twine50
Millwall
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Millwall won 2–0 at Bristol City. The model had made a win for Millwall its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Coburn 41' for Millwall, J. Coburn 50' for Millwall. Sent off: A. Randell (Bristol City) 36'. On expected goals it finished 0.50–3.00.