Middlesbrough
vs
Lincoln
Championship prediction
The model makes it 75% Middlesbrough, 15% draw, 10% Lincoln — fair odds of 1.33, 6.67 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Middlesbrough 2.69, Lincoln 0.89.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Middlesbrough carry a model rating of 7.1 against 6.7 for Lincoln. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.69 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.89 for Lincoln. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Middlesbrough rate 1.26 in attack and 0.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lincoln rate 0.83 and 1.13.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Middlesbrough the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Middlesbrough against 0.89 for Lincoln. Middlesbrough's attack/defence rating is 1.26/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.13 for Lincoln.