Middlesbrough vs Lincoln Championship prediction & result
Final score: Middlesbrough 2-1 Lincoln.
Before kick-off the model made it 75% Middlesbrough, 15% draw, 10% Lincoln — fair odds of 1.33, 6.67 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 75%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Middlesbrough vs Lincoln
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Radek VitekG
- 2Callum BrittainD
- 12Luke AylingD
- 29Adilson MalandaD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 42Abdoulaye KantéM
- 6Sebastian BerhalterM
- 11Morgan WhittakerM
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 7Will LankshearF
- 22Kyle JosephF
- 17Maximilian ArfstenD
- 14Myles Peart-HarrisM
- 8Riley McGreeM
- 16Jeremy SarmientoF
- 5Alfie JonesD
- 31Solomon BrynnG
- 25George EdmundsonD
- 46Finlay CartwrightM
- 44Cruz IbehM
- 1George WickensG
- 2Tendayi DarikwaD
- 22Thomas HamerD
- 25Deji ElereweD
- 6Ryley TowlerD
- 3Adam ReachD
- 16Dom JefferiesM
- 24Ivan VarfolomeevM
- 14Conor McGrandlesM
- 34Freddie DraperF
- 18Ben HouseF
- 19Isaac OlaofeF
- 17Robert StreetF
- 7Reeco Hackett-FairchildM
- 4Andrei CoubișD
- 8Tom BaylissM
- 46Joe GauciG
- 23Joshua HonohanD
- 20Callum ElderD
- 10Mason MeliaF
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Lincoln
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Middlesbrough beat Lincoln 2–1. The model had made a win for Middlesbrough its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: A. Reach 12' for Lincoln, W. Lankshear 62' for Middlesbrough, W. Lankshear 90+1' for Middlesbrough. On expected goals it finished 2.22–0.62.