Portsmouth vs QPR Championship prediction & result
Final score: Portsmouth 1-3 QPR.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Portsmouth, 28% draw, 32% QPR — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Portsmouth at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portsmouth vs QPR
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Nicolas SchmidG
- 24Terry DevlinD
- 5Regan PooleD
- 6Conor ShaughnessyD
- 22Zak SwansonD
- 19Rocco Robert SheinM
- 38Ebou AdamsM
- 11Abu KamaraM
- 10Adrian SegečićM
- 28Luke Brooke-SmithM
- 9Colby BishopF
- 25Ryan Kavuma-McQueenF
- 23Josh MurphyM
- 2Benjamin ArthurD
- 29Marko MilovanovićF
- 27Odin BaileyM
- 31Daniel BielicaG
- 55Madiodio DiaD
- 16Luke Le RouxM
- 8John SwiftM
- 1Pierce CharlesG
- 27Amadou Salif MbengueD
- 3Jimmy DunneD
- 6Jake Clarke-SalterD
- 12Boy KemperD
- 20Harvey ValeM
- 5Ronnie EdwardsM
- 17Kwame PokuM
- 10Ilias ChairM
- 14Koki SaitoM
- 16Rumarn BurrellF
- 2Kealey AdamsonD
- 11Paul SmythF
- 18Glen KamaraM
- 40Jonathan VaraneM
- 15Alfie LloydF
- 13Calum WardG
- 4Liam MorrisonD
- 23Isak Alemayehu MulugetaM
- 22Richard KoneF
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs QPR
- 21 March 2026QPR 6–1 PortsmouthChampionship
- 26 December 2025Portsmouth 1–1 QPRChampionship
- 22 February 2025Portsmouth 2–1 QPRChampionship
- 19 October 2024QPR 1–2 PortsmouthChampionship
- 7 July 2021QPR 2–1 PortsmouthFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Portsmouth and QPR
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
QPR
GoalsAssists
- R. Kone51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
QPR won 3–1 at Portsmouth. The model had leaned towards a win for Portsmouth at 40% and given a win for QPR 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: T. Devlin 15' for Portsmouth, I. Chair 33' for QPR, K. Saito 40' for QPR, I. Chair 45+2' for QPR. On expected goals it finished 2.00–2.04.