Portsmouth
vs
QPR
Championship prediction
The model makes it 40% Portsmouth, 28% draw, 32% QPR — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.38, QPR 1.21.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs QPR
- 21 March 2026QPR 6–1 PortsmouthChampionship
- 26 December 2025Portsmouth 1–1 QPRChampionship
- 22 February 2025Portsmouth 2–1 QPRChampionship
- 19 October 2024QPR 1–2 PortsmouthChampionship
- 7 July 2021QPR 2–1 PortsmouthFriendlies Clubs
- 28 August 2019QPR 0–2 PortsmouthLeague Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Portsmouth carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.84 for QPR. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Portsmouth and 1.21 for QPR. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portsmouth rate 0.84 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; QPR rate 0.83 and 0.87.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portsmouth the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Portsmouth against 1.21 for QPR. Portsmouth's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/0.87 for QPR.