Norwich vs West Brom Championship prediction & result
Final score: Norwich 1-2 West Brom.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Norwich, 26% draw, 26% West Brom — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Norwich at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Norwich vs West Brom
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Vladan KovačevićG
- 35Kellen FisherD
- 6Harry DarlingD
- 33José CórdobaD
- 14Ben ChriseneD
- 23Kenny McLeanM
- 7Pelle MattssonM
- 11Andre BrooksM
- 20Anis Ben SlimaneM
- 25Paris MaghomaM
- 21Mohamed TouréF
- 19Papa Amadou DialloF
- 29Oscar SchwartauF
- 16Jacob WrightM
- 26Sam FieldM
- 30Mathias KvistgaardenF
- 32Daniel GrimshawG
- 28Bruno AlvesD
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 3Jack StaceyD
- 1Max O'LearyG
- 25Nolan GalvesD
- 3Nathaniel PhillipsD
- 6George CampbellD
- 4Callum StylesD
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 17Ousmane DiakitéM
- 7Felix Horn MyhreM
- 21Isaac PriceM
- 19Aune Selland HeggebøF
- 11Jimmy MorganF
- 20Rabby NzingoulaM
- 8Jayson MolumbyM
- 2Chris MephamD
- 5Krystian BielikD
- 9Barney StewartF
- 13Matt IngramG
- 28Alex WilliamsD
- 22Conor TownsendD
- 10Mikey JohnstonF
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Norwich vs West Brom
- 14 February 2026Norwich 3–1 West BromFA Cup
- 20 January 2026West Brom 0–5 NorwichChampionship
- 1 October 2025Norwich 0–1 West BromChampionship
- 29 March 2025Norwich 1–0 West BromChampionship
- 23 November 2024West Brom 2–2 NorwichChampionship
Leading scorers: Norwich and West Brom
Norwich
GoalsAssists
- M. Touré50
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price63
- J. Morgan54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
West Brom won 2–1 at Norwich. The model had leaned towards a win for Norwich at 48% and given a win for West Brom 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Heggebo 75' for West Brom, J. Morgan 87' for West Brom, M. Kvistgaarden 90+1' for Norwich. On expected goals it finished 2.72–1.45.