Bolton vs Preston Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bolton 2-1 Preston.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Bolton, 22% draw, 34% Preston — fair odds of 2.27, 4.55 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Bolton at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bolton vs Preston
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jack BonhamG
- 27Luca StephensonD
- 3Chris ForinoD
- 14Akin FamewoD
- 25Max ConwayD
- 8Josh SheehanM
- 21Ethan ErhahonM
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalM
- 45John McAteeM
- 11Thierry GaleM
- 10Sam DalbyF
- 16Samuel Iling JuniorF
- 39Ryan HardieF
- 18Eoin ToalD
- 5Lewis BruntD
- 7Kyliane DongF
- 23David HarringtonG
- 29Cyrus ChristieD
- 6Ben DaviesD
- 12David WatsonM
- 1Daniel IversenG
- 2Pol ValentínD
- 14Jordan StoreyD
- 6Liam LindsayD
- 16Andrew HughesD
- 8Ali McCannM
- 15Jordan ThompsonM
- 7Alfie DevineM
- 10Callum LangM
- 37Delano BurgzorgM
- 28Milutin OsmajićF
- 27Leo LeroyM
- 24Odeluga OffiahD
- 9Jusef ErabiF
- 3Andrija VukčevićD
- 11Thierry SmallD
- 21Lee NichollsG
- 32Ed NolanD
- 23Andrew MoranM
- 30George GrybaF
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Preston
- 26 July 2025Bolton 2–0 PrestonFriendlies Clubs
- 20 July 2021Bolton 1–0 PrestonFriendlies Clubs
- 9 February 2019Bolton 1–2 PrestonChampionship
- 1 September 2018Preston 2–2 BoltonChampionship
- 3 March 2018Bolton 1–3 PrestonChampionship
Leading scorers: Bolton and Preston
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Preston
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bolton beat Preston 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Bolton at 44%. The goals: S. Dalby 14' for Bolton, T. Gale 25' for Bolton, J. Erabi 86' for Preston. On expected goals it finished 1.10–0.81.