Bolton
vs
Preston
Championship prediction
The model makes it 44% Bolton, 22% draw, 34% Preston — fair odds of 2.27, 4.55 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bolton 2.05, Preston 1.79.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Preston
- 26 July 2025Bolton 2–0 PrestonFriendlies Clubs
- 20 July 2021Bolton 1–0 PrestonFriendlies Clubs
- 9 February 2019Bolton 1–2 PrestonChampionship
- 1 September 2018Preston 2–2 BoltonChampionship
- 3 March 2018Bolton 1–3 PrestonChampionship
- 17 November 2017Preston 0–0 BoltonChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bolton carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.96 for Preston. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.05 goals for Bolton and 1.79 for Preston. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bolton rate 0.86 in attack and 0.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Preston rate 1.45 and 1.26.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bolton the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Bolton against 1.79 for Preston. Bolton's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.45/1.26 for Preston.