Sturm Graz
vs
SCR Altach
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 65% Sturm Graz, 18% draw, 17% SCR Altach — fair odds of 1.54, 5.56 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Sturm Graz 2.60, SCR Altach 1.30.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sturm Graz
- W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026
- D1-1away to WSG Wattens1 August 2026
SCR Altach
- W3-1WSG Wattens7 August 2026
- L0-1away to Rapid Vienna2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | SCR Altach | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Sturm Graz
- N. Weiper2 goals
- S. Włodarczyk1 goals
SCR Altach
- P. Greil1 goals
- Y. Massombo1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sturm Graz carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.39 for SCR Altach. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sturm Graz D-W; SCR Altach L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.60 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.30 for SCR Altach. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sturm Graz rate 0.84 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SCR Altach rate 0.65 and 1.64.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.6 expected goals for Sturm Graz against 1.3 for SCR Altach. Sturm Graz's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.64 for SCR Altach.