Celta Vigo
vs
Real Betis
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Celta Vigo 0–1 Real Betis
The model makes it 33% Celta Vigo, 30% draw, 37% Real Betis — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.13, Real Betis 1.25.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Real Betis: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Celta Vigo are 9th on 8 points from 8 games; Real Betis are 3rd on 19 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Celta Vigo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Elche.
- Real Betis are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-2 win at home to Osasuna.
- Last 6 meetings: Celta Vigo 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Real Betis 1–1 Celta Vigo.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celta Vigo vs Real Betis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Betis at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Real Betis
Celta Vigo
- D0-0away to Elche11 October 2026
- W5-0Racing Santander19 September 2026
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
Real Betis
- W5-2Osasuna11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna20 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe17 September 2026
- W2-1away to Villarreal14 September 2026
- W1-0Real Madrid4 September 2026
What these results say
- Celta Vigo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Celta Vigo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Celta Vigo had two goals or fewer.
- Real Betis went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Real Betis scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Betis won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Real Betis
Chance to finish in the top four · 73% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Real Betis
- 15 March 2026Real Betis 1–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 27 August 2025Celta Vigo 1–1 Real BetisLa Liga
- 8 February 2025Celta Vigo 3–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 10 November 2024Real Betis 2–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 12 April 2024Real Betis 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 3 January 2024Celta Vigo 2–1 Real BetisLa Liga
The two sides
Celta Vigo carry a model rating of 6.89 against 7.06 for Real Betis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.25 for Real Betis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta Vigo rate 0.85 in attack and 0.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Betis rate 1.26 and 0.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Celta Vigo a 0% chance of the title and Real Betis 3.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Betis the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.25 for Real Betis. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 0.85/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.82 for Real Betis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celta Vigo at home · Real Betis away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Celta VigoReal Betis
Celta Vigo are 9th after 8 La Liga matches (between 9th and 17th so far); Real Betis are 3rd after 8 (between 2nd and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Celta Vigo 8, Real Betis 8.
Celta Vigo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Real Betis have let in 1 there.
Real Betis score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Celta Vigo have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Celta Vigo
- at Rayo Vallecano31 Oct · La Ligawin 31%
- vs Union St. Gilloise5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Real Betis
- vs Malaga31 Oct · La Ligawin 68%
- at Borussia Dortmund4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.