Cardiff vs Charlton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Cardiff 3-1 Charlton.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Cardiff, 29% draw, 31% Charlton — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cardiff at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cardiff vs Charlton
Line-ups
- 1N. TrottG
- 38P. NgD
- 5K. BielikD
- 4G. OshoD
- 3J. BaganD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 11O. TannerM
- 8J. MoylanM
- 16C. WillockM
- 9Y. SalechF
- 45Cian AshfordF
- 44R. KpakioD
- 48D. LawlorD
- 47C. RobinsonF
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 33R. TankiewiczM
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 30H. TyrerG
- 43P. MorenoM
- 13A. OkonkwoG
- 20D. McNamaraD
- 5L. JonesD
- 44Tyler BindonD
- 18I. MesíkD
- 6C. CoventryM
- 34O. SkippM
- 19M. AlliM
- 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
- 7T. CampbellM
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 16T. OumaM
- 23C. KelmanF
- 8H. KnibbsM
- 35R. NkengF
- 3J. EdwardsD
- 14S. CareyM
- 21T. BrooksG
- 17A. BellD
- 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
Form going into Cardiff vs Charlton
Cardiff
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Bolton12 September 2026
- D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Portsmouth5 September 2026
- L1-2away to QPR2 September 2026
- D2-2Sheffield Utd29 August 2026
Charlton
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
- D0-0QPR9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Stoke City5 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom2 September 2026
- W1-0Preston29 August 2026
What these results say
- Cardiff did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Charlton had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Charlton
- 30 June 2020Cardiff 0–0 CharltonChampionship
- 23 November 2019Charlton 2–2 CardiffChampionship
- 13 February 2016Charlton 0–0 CardiffChampionship
- 26 September 2015Cardiff 2–1 CharltonChampionship
- 7 March 2015Cardiff 1–2 CharltonChampionship
Leading scorers: Cardiff and Charlton
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan63
Charlton
GoalsAssists
- T. Campbell41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cardiff beat Charlton 3–1. The model had made a win for Cardiff its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jack Moylan 8' for Cardiff, Yousef Salech 24' for Cardiff, Tyreece Campbell 29' for Charlton, Jack Moylan 61' for Cardiff.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.