Millwall vs West Ham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Millwall 2-2 West Ham.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Millwall, 28% draw, 41% West Ham — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Ham at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Millwall vs West Ham
Line-ups
- 34F. MarschallG
- 2J. Osei-TutuD
- 6C. TaylorD
- 5J. CooperD
- 3Zak Norton SturgeD
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 49D. Mazou-SackoM
- 17M. SykesM
- 13L. DykesM
- 10C. NeghliM
- 7T. ArconteF
- 12E. BaggottD
- 23D. BatthD
- 15M. CrocombeG
- 25L. CundleM
- 45A. DoughtyM
- 35Y. IssoufouF
- 16D. KellyM
- 22K. LisbieF
- 8M. ServaisM
- 1M. HermansenG
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 15K. MavropanosD
- 3M. KilmanD
- 5MoratoD
- 20J. BowenM
- 14D. MukasaM
- 7A. EngelsM
- 10M. SolomonM
- 9J. PiroeF
- 11V. CastellanosF
- 30O. ScarlesD
- 19PabloF
- 61L. OrfordM
- 27S. MagassaM
- 17M. KantéM
- 49F. HerrickG
- 58A. GolambeckisD
- 35E. AustböF
- 66J. AjalaF
Form going into Millwall vs West Ham
Millwall
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Blackburn12 September 2026
- W4-0Bolton5 September 2026
- L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026
- L1-5away to Southampton29 August 2026
West Ham
All competitions we cover
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton8 September 2026
- W3-0Derby5 September 2026
- W4-2Wolves1 September 2026
- D1-1away to Watford29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- West Ham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- West Ham won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 15 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Millwall vs West Ham
- 4 February 2012West Ham 2–1 MillwallChampionship
- 17 September 2011Millwall 0–0 West HamChampionship
Leading scorers: Millwall and West Ham
Millwall
GoalsAssists
- L. Dykes41
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen65
- K. Mavropanos50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Millwall and West Ham drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for West Ham at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Caleb Taylor 16' for Millwall, Camiel Neghli 45+3' for Millwall, Mohamadou Kante 74' for West Ham, Konstantinos Mavropanos 80' for West Ham. Sent off: Mohamadou Kante (West Ham) 89'.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.