Millwall
vs
West Ham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Millwall 1–2 West Ham
The model makes it 31% Millwall, 28% draw, 41% West Ham — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Millwall 1.28, West Ham 1.64.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Millwall vs West Ham
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Millwall wins, grey are draws, red are West Ham wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Ham at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Millwall vs West Ham
Millwall
- L1-3away to Blackburn12 September 2026
- W4-0Bolton5 September 2026
- L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026
- L1-5away to Southampton29 August 2026
- W3-0Norwich22 August 2026
West Ham
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton8 September 2026
- W3-0Derby5 September 2026
- W4-2Wolves1 September 2026
- D1-1away to Watford29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Millwall | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Millwall vs West Ham
- 4 February 2012West Ham 2–1 MillwallChampionship
- 17 September 2011Millwall 0–0 West HamChampionship
Leading scorers: Millwall and West Ham
Millwall
- L. Dykes3 goals
West Ham
- J. Bowen4 goals3 assists
- J. Piroe3 goals
- K. Mavropanos3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Millwall carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.84 for West Ham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Millwall and 1.64 for West Ham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Millwall rate 0.77 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; West Ham rate 1.00 and 1.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Millwall a 0.9% chance of the title and West Ham 9.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Ham the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Millwall against 1.64 for West Ham. Millwall's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.02 for West Ham.