Grazer AK
vs
Austria Vienna
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Grazer AK 1–0 Austria Vienna
The model makes it 47% Grazer AK, 29% draw, 24% Austria Vienna — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Grazer AK 1.66, Austria Vienna 0.88.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Grazer AK wins, grey are draws, red are Austria Vienna wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Grazer AK at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna
Grazer AK
- W2-1away to SCR Altach12 September 2026
- D0-0Wolfsberger AC29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ried21 August 2026
- L0-8away to Rapid Vienna16 August 2026
- W2-1Austria Lustenau8 August 2026
Austria Vienna
- W2-1Austria Lustenau13 September 2026
- L0-1WSG Wattens2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Red Bull Salzburg30 August 2026
- W2-0away to TSV Hartberg16 August 2026
- L0-2Lask Linz9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grazer AK | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 7 |
| 8 | Austria Vienna | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna
- 31 January 2026Austria Vienna 2–0 Grazer AKFriendlies Clubs
- 8 November 2025Austria Vienna 2–1 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 3 August 2025Grazer AK 2–2 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 1 March 2025Grazer AK 1–2 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 5 October 2024Austria Vienna 2–1 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 15 February 2019Grazer AK 2–1 Austria ViennaCup
Leading scorers: Grazer AK and Austria Vienna
Grazer AK
- A. Hofleitner2 goals
Austria Vienna
- J. Hettwer2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Grazer AK carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.19 for Austria Vienna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Grazer AK and 0.88 for Austria Vienna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Grazer AK rate 0.58 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austria Vienna rate 0.47 and 1.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grazer AK the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Grazer AK against 0.88 for Austria Vienna. Grazer AK's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.76 for Austria Vienna.