Birmingham vs Middlesbrough Championship prediction & result
Final score: Birmingham 2-2 Middlesbrough.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Birmingham, 28% draw, 32% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Birmingham at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Birmingham vs Middlesbrough
Line-ups
- 1J. BeadleG
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 4C. KlarerD
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 14J. SolisM
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 28J. StansfieldM
- 17L. MillarM
- 32L. VázquezF
- 21R. AllsopG
- 3L. BuchananD
- 33M. DuckschF
- 23D. FryD
- 2E. LairdD
- 25K. LundD
- 40M. MazwiM
- 8Paik Seung-HoM
- 16P. RobertsM
- 1R. VítekG
- 12L. AylingD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 29A. MalandaD
- 2C. BrittainM
- 10A. MorrisM
- 8R. McGreeM
- 17M. ArfstenM
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 22K. JosephF
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 21R. PukštasM
- 16J. SarmientoF
- 13D. StrelecF
- 9T. ConwayF
- 3S. ByramD
- 31S. BrynnG
- 6S. BerhalterM
Form going into Birmingham vs Middlesbrough
Birmingham
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
- D2-2Wolves6 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Wrexham28 August 2026
Middlesbrough
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Millwall15 September 2026
- W4-3Norwich12 September 2026
- W1-0away to QPR5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Burnley2 September 2026
- W3-1West Brom29 August 2026
What these results say
- Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Birmingham.
- Middlesbrough went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 20 |
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Middlesbrough
- 2 March 2026Birmingham 1–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 8 November 2025Middlesbrough 2–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 12 March 2024Birmingham 0–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 21 October 2023Middlesbrough 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 2 January 2023Birmingham 1–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
Leading scorers: Birmingham and Middlesbrough
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- L. Millar43
- A. Priske41
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear110
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Birmingham and Middlesbrough drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Birmingham at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Max Arfsten 45' for Middlesbrough, Liam Millar 55' for Birmingham, Riley McGree (own goal) 59' for Birmingham, A.Malanda 88' for Middlesbrough.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.