Lincoln vs Swansea Championship prediction & result
Final score: Lincoln 1-2 Swansea.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Lincoln, 29% draw, 29% Swansea — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lincoln at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lincoln vs Swansea
Line-ups
- 1G. WickensG
- 25D. ElereweD
- 15S. BradleyD
- 6R. TowlerD
- 4A. CoubișM
- 8T. BaylissM
- 14C. McGrandlesM
- 3A. ReachM
- 7R. HackettM
- 18B. HouseM
- 34F. DraperF
- 29E. WheatleyF
- 24I. VarfolomeevM
- 17R. StreetF
- 33D. OyegokeD
- 27C. OgbeneF
- 11M. LadefogedF
- 26Y. KonakM
- 16D. JefferiesM
- 46J. GauciG
- 22L. VigourouxG
- 26F. LissahD
- 5B. CabangoD
- 23S. WelshD
- 14J. TymonD
- 8E. JustM
- 6M. StamenićM
- 46S. EustáquioM
- 49M. YeoF
- 33A. IdahF
- 7M. WidellF
- 9Z. VipotnikF
- 3J. SeeltD
- 35RonaldF
- 20Tiago ParenteD
- 30Joseph OkopuF
- 16Tom IorpendaM
- 4J. FultonM
- 17Gonçalo FrancoM
- 1A. FisherG
Form going into Lincoln vs Swansea
Lincoln
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Preston12 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton5 September 2026
- D0-0Blackburn1 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bolton29 August 2026
Swansea
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
- D0-0Wrexham5 September 2026
- W2-0Watford1 September 2026
- W3-0away to Derby29 August 2026
What these results say
- Lincoln went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lincoln had two goals or fewer.
- Lincoln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 15 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Lincoln and Swansea
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Swansea
GoalsAssists
- A. Idah41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Swansea won 2–1 at Lincoln. The model had leaned towards a win for Lincoln at 42% and given a win for Swansea 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Reeco Hackett-Fairchild (penalty) 39' for Lincoln, Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 47' for Swansea, Stephen Eustáquio 51' for Swansea.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.