Austria Lustenau
vs
SCR Altach
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Austria Lustenau 1–2 SCR Altach
The model makes it 34% Austria Lustenau, 29% draw, 37% SCR Altach — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Austria Lustenau 1.40, SCR Altach 1.47.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Austria Lustenau wins, grey are draws, red are SCR Altach wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SCR Altach at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach
Austria Lustenau
- L1-2away to Austria Vienna13 September 2026
- L0-4WSG Wattens28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sturm Graz22 August 2026
- W2-1Wolfsberger AC15 August 2026
- L1-2away to Grazer AK8 August 2026
SCR Altach
- L1-2Grazer AK12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Lask Linz29 August 2026
- L1-2TSV Hartberg22 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sturm Graz15 August 2026
- W3-1WSG Wattens7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Austria Lustenau | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 12 | SCR Altach | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach
- 18 May 2024SCR Altach 2–2 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 13 April 2024Austria Lustenau 0–1 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 5 December 2023SCR Altach 3–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 26 August 2023Austria Lustenau 0–3 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 27 May 2023SCR Altach 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 8 April 2023Austria Lustenau 1–0 SCR AltachBundesliga
Leading scorers: Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach
Austria Lustenau
- D. Weixelbraun3 goals1 assists
- A. Verinac2 goals1 assists
SCR Altach
- Y. Massombo2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Austria Lustenau carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.36 for SCR Altach. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.47 for SCR Altach. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austria Lustenau rate 0.55 in attack and 2.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SCR Altach rate 0.59 and 1.56.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Austria Lustenau, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SCR Altach the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Austria Lustenau against 1.47 for SCR Altach. Austria Lustenau's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.56 for SCR Altach.