Sporting Cristal
vs
FC Cajamarca
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Sporting Cristal 2–1 FC Cajamarca
The model makes it 62% Sporting Cristal, 20% draw, 18% FC Cajamarca — fair odds of 1.61, 5.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Sporting Cristal 2.65, FC Cajamarca 1.20.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Sporting Cristal: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sporting Cristal are 9th on 41 points from 28 games; FC Cajamarca are 15th on 28 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Sporting Cristal are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to UTC Cajamarca.
- FC Cajamarca have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to ADT.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Cristal at 62% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
- W1-0away to UTC Cajamarca11 October 2026
- W3-1Atletico Grau19 September 2026
- W2-1away to UCV Moquegua13 September 2026
- W5-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sport Boys30 August 2026
FC Cajamarca
- D0-0away to ADT10 October 2026
- L1-2Cusco19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas12 September 2026
- L2-5Cienciano4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Comerciantes Unidos28 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Cristal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Cristal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Cajamarca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Cajamarca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Cajamarca had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 49 | 40 | +9 | 41 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca
- 15 May 2026FC Cajamarca 3–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
Leading scorers: Sporting Cristal and FC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
GoalsAssists
- H. Barcos93
- L. Iberico70
FC Cajamarca
GoalsAssists
- M. Arrasco75
- B. Palacios73
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sporting Cristal carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.26 for FC Cajamarca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.65 goals for Sporting Cristal and 1.20 for FC Cajamarca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Cristal rate 0.75 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Cajamarca rate 0.65 and 2.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Cristal the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Sporting Cristal against 1.20 for FC Cajamarca. Sporting Cristal's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2.17 for FC Cajamarca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sporting Cristal at home · FC Cajamarca away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Sporting Cristal 28, FC Cajamarca 28.
Sporting Cristal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); FC Cajamarca have let in 9 there.
FC Cajamarca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Sporting Cristal have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Sporting Cristal
- at ADT7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
- vs Cienciano14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 53%
FC Cajamarca
- vs Alianza Atletico7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- at Alianza Lima14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.