26 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale League Two prediction & result

Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Fleetwood Town 1-2 Rochdale.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Fleetwood Town, 30% draw, 26% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fleetwood Town at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fleetwood Town0%Draw6%Rochdale94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Dajaune Brownassist: Glenn Middleton
14'
⚽Aden Flintassist: Dajaune Brown
⚽Mark Helmassist: Aaron Loupalo-Bi
30'
39'
Olutobi Adebayo-Rowling
64'
🔁Jonny Smithout: Cian Hayes
64'
🔁K. Taylorout: Edward Francis
🔁Kayden Hughesout: Jake Thomas Batty
64'
69'
Olutobi Adebayo-Rowling
🔁Adam Murphyout: Ronan Coughlan
70'
R. Cirino
73'
84'
🔁Dajaune Brownout: Emmanuel Dieseruvwe
84'
🔁Glenn Middletonout: Devante Rodney
88'
🔁Harvey Gilmourout: Sam·Sherring

Match stats — Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale

54%Possession46%
21Shots12
5On target6
5Corners5

Line-ups

Fleetwood Town 5-3-2
  • 1J. LynchG
  • 29R. CirinoD
  • 26S. RooneyD
  • 5F. PotterD
  • 32Kayden HughesD
  • 14L. McCannD
  • 15A. MurphyM
  • 4H. NealM
  • 10M. HelmM
  • 20A. Loupalo-BiF
  • 17C. EvansF
Substitutes
  • 19R. CoughlanF
  • 9W. DaviesF
  • 36J. DempseyD
  • 22J. PradicG
  • 28J. RobertsonM
  • 24Jake Thomas BattyD
  • 35S. CostelloeM
Coach: M. Lawlor
Rochdale 4-2-3-1
  • 20Sam William John WallerG
  • 2C. TaskerD
  • 44A. FlintD
  • 3Kaiden WilsonD
  • 13O. Adebayo-RowlingD
  • 8H. GilmourM
  • 17B. AdeekoM
  • 18J. SmithM
  • 45G. MiddletonM
  • 21Kane TaylorM
  • 39D. BrownF
Substitutes
  • 26S. SherringD
  • 7C. HayesF
  • 19L. HannantM
  • 10D. RodneyF
  • 14E. FrancisM
  • 9E. DieseruvweF
  • 12J. SpavenG
Coach: Ian Watson

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Fleetwood Town144551818017
20Rochdale144371726-915

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale

  • 20 July 2024Fleetwood Town 1–1 RochdaleFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 July 2021Rochdale 3–3 Fleetwood TownFriendlies Clubs
  • 10 April 2021Fleetwood Town 1–0 RochdaleLeague One
  • 3 October 2020Rochdale 2–1 Fleetwood TownLeague One
  • 26 December 2019Rochdale 2–3 Fleetwood TownLeague One

Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Rochdale

Fleetwood Town

GoalsAssists

  • R. Coughlan51

Rochdale

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rochdale won 2–1 at Fleetwood Town. The model had leaned towards a win for Fleetwood Town at 44% and given a win for Rochdale 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Dajaune Brown 8' for Rochdale, Aden Flint 14' for Rochdale, Mark Helm 30' for Fleetwood Town. Sent off: Olutobi Adebayo-Rowling (Rochdale) 69'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.