Fleetwood Town
vs
Rochdale
League Two prediction
Our model says: Fleetwood Town 1–0 Rochdale
The model makes it 44% Fleetwood Town, 30% draw, 26% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.53, Rochdale 0.94.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fleetwood Town at 44% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
Fleetwood Town
- L1-3away to Barnet19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County12 September 2026
- W2-0Shrewsbury5 September 2026
- D1-1Oldham1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Grimsby29 August 2026
Rochdale
- W2-0Oldham19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Walsall12 September 2026
- L1-4Gillingham5 September 2026
- W3-0Shrewsbury1 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colchester29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
- 20 July 2024Fleetwood Town 1–1 RochdaleFriendlies Clubs
- 17 July 2021Rochdale 3–3 Fleetwood TownFriendlies Clubs
- 10 April 2021Fleetwood Town 1–0 RochdaleLeague One
- 3 October 2020Rochdale 2–1 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 26 December 2019Rochdale 2–3 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 21 September 2019Fleetwood Town 2–1 RochdaleLeague One
The two sides
Fleetwood Town carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6 for Rochdale. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Fleetwood Town and 0.94 for Rochdale. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fleetwood Town rate 0.46 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rochdale rate 0.42 and 2.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fleetwood Town a 5.5% chance of the title and Rochdale 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleetwood Town the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Fleetwood Town against 0.94 for Rochdale. Fleetwood Town's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/2.29 for Rochdale.