Newport County
vs
Grimsby
League Two prediction
Our model says: Newport County 1–2 Grimsby
The model makes it 28% Newport County, 28% draw, 44% Grimsby — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Newport County 1.19, Grimsby 1.80.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Newport County vs Grimsby
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Grimsby at 44% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Newport County vs Grimsby
Newport County
- D0-0away to Accrington Stanley19 September 2026
- D1-1Fleetwood Town12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Northampton5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Salford City1 September 2026
- D2-2Tranmere29 August 2026
Grimsby
- W2-0Crawley Town19 September 2026
- W2-0Bristol Rovers12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cheltenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Accrington Stanley1 September 2026
- D2-2Fleetwood Town29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Newport County | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
| 3 | Grimsby | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Newport County vs Grimsby
- 7 February 2026Newport County 0–0 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 16 August 2025Grimsby 2–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 22 March 2025Grimsby 1–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 16 November 2024Newport County 0–0 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 6 April 2024Grimsby 1–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 16 December 2023Newport County 1–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Newport County and Grimsby
Newport County
- S. Gwengwe4 goals
- H. Biggins2 goals2 assists
Grimsby
- K. Green3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Newport County carry a model rating of 6.02 against 6.32 for Grimsby. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Newport County and 1.80 for Grimsby. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newport County rate 0.47 in attack and 2.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Grimsby rate 0.60 and 1.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Newport County a 0.1% chance of the title and Grimsby 17.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grimsby the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Newport County against 1.8 for Grimsby. Newport County's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.74 for Grimsby.