Oldham
vs
Salford City
League Two prediction
Our model says: Oldham 1–0 Salford City
The model makes it 39% Oldham, 30% draw, 31% Salford City — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Oldham 1.40, Salford City 1.09.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Oldham vs Salford City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oldham at 39% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Oldham vs Salford City
Oldham
- L0-2away to Rochdale19 September 2026
- L1-2Chesterfield12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tranmere5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fleetwood Town1 September 2026
- W3-0Swindon Town29 August 2026
Salford City
- W1-0Swindon Town19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Rotherham12 September 2026
- W1-0Port Vale5 September 2026
- W2-1Newport County1 September 2026
- L0-1away to Shrewsbury29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Oldham | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Salford City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Oldham vs Salford City
- 18 April 2026Oldham 1–2 Salford CityLeague Two
- 18 October 2025Salford City 1–0 OldhamLeague Two
- 23 April 2022Oldham 1–2 Salford CityLeague Two
- 27 November 2021Salford City 2–0 OldhamLeague Two
- 31 August 2021Oldham 1–0 Salford CityEFL Trophy
- 30 January 2021Oldham 2–1 Salford CityLeague Two
Leading scorers: Oldham and Salford City
Oldham
- C. Kavanagh3 goals3 assists
Salford City
- J. Powell3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Oldham carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.16 for Salford City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Oldham and 1.09 for Salford City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oldham rate 0.51 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Salford City rate 0.47 and 1.88.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Salford City, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oldham a 0.3% chance of the title and Salford City 0.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oldham the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Oldham against 1.09 for Salford City. Oldham's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.88 for Salford City.