Central Coast Mariners
vs
Newcastle Jets
A-League prediction
Our model says: Central Coast Mariners 1–2 Newcastle Jets
The model makes it 30% Central Coast Mariners, 26% draw, 44% Newcastle Jets — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Central Coast Mariners 1.56, Newcastle Jets 2.15.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Newcastle Jets 4–0 Central Coast Mariners.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newcastle Jets at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets
Central Coast Mariners
No earlier matches on record this season.
Newcastle Jets
- L1-7away to Kashima15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | AFC Champions League Elite | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Central Coast Mariners has not started the league season yet. Full tables: A-League · AFC Champions League Elite
Head-to-head: Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets
- 25 April 2026Newcastle Jets 4–0 Central Coast MarinersA-League
- 28 February 2026Central Coast Mariners 0–0 Newcastle JetsA-League
- 19 October 2025Central Coast Mariners 3–2 Newcastle JetsA-League
- 12 April 2025Newcastle Jets 6–0 Central Coast MarinersA-League
- 1 February 2025Central Coast Mariners 2–2 Newcastle JetsA-League
- 22 November 2024Newcastle Jets 1–2 Central Coast MarinersA-League
Leading scorers: Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets
Central Coast Mariners
No leading scorers listed yet.
Newcastle Jets
- P. Wood1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Central Coast Mariners carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.43 for Newcastle Jets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 2.15 for Newcastle Jets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Central Coast Mariners rate 0.56 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newcastle Jets rate 0.73 and 1.70.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newcastle Jets the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Central Coast Mariners against 2.15 for Newcastle Jets. Central Coast Mariners's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.7 for Newcastle Jets.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Central Coast Mariners
- at Wellington Phoenix25 Oct · A-Leaguewin 37%
- at Melbourne Victory1 Nov · A-Leaguewin 29%
- at Sydney FC6 Nov · A-Leaguewin 30%
- vs Perth Glory21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 37%
- vs Auckland FC28 Nov · A-Leaguewin 29%
Newcastle Jets
- vs Macarthur FC24 Oct · A-Leaguewin 47%
- at Kyoto Sanga27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 28%
- vs Wellington Phoenix31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 49%
- vs SHANGHAI SIPG3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.