Macarthur FC
vs
Perth Glory
A-League prediction
Our model says: Macarthur FC 2–1 Perth Glory
The model makes it 37% Macarthur FC, 27% draw, 36% Perth Glory — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Macarthur FC 1.74, Perth Glory 1.68.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Macarthur FC and Perth Glory are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Perth Glory 3–1 Macarthur FC.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Macarthur FC at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Head-to-head: Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory
- 12 April 2026Perth Glory 3–1 Macarthur FCA-League
- 6 February 2026Macarthur FC 2–2 Perth GloryA-League
- 30 November 2025Macarthur FC 0–2 Perth GloryA-League
- 27 December 2024Perth Glory 0–3 Macarthur FCA-League
- 20 October 2024Macarthur FC 6–1 Perth GloryA-League
- 28 January 2024Macarthur FC 2–2 Perth GloryA-League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Macarthur FC carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.26 for Perth Glory. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Macarthur FC and 1.68 for Perth Glory. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Macarthur FC rate 0.60 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Perth Glory rate 0.54 and 1.77.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Macarthur FC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Macarthur FC against 1.68 for Perth Glory. Macarthur FC's attack/defence rating is 0.6/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.77 for Perth Glory.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Macarthur FC
- at Newcastle Jets24 Oct · A-Leaguewin 28%
- vs Western Sydney Wanderers31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 42%
- vs Brisbane Roar8 Nov · A-Leaguewin 40%
- at Wellington Phoenix22 Nov · A-Leaguewin 38%
- vs Melbourne City27 Nov · A-Leaguewin 35%
Perth Glory
- at Brisbane Roar23 Oct · A-Leaguewin 37%
- vs Adelaide United1 Nov · A-Leaguewin 34%
- vs Newcastle Jets7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 31%
- at Central Coast Mariners21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 36%
- at Western Sydney Wanderers5 Dec · A-Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.