Wellington Phoenix
vs
Melbourne Victory
A-League prediction
Our model says: Wellington Phoenix 1–2 Melbourne Victory
The model makes it 30% Wellington Phoenix, 26% draw, 44% Melbourne Victory — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Wellington Phoenix 1.45, Melbourne Victory 2.02.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: Melbourne Victory 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Melbourne Victory 0–1 Wellington Phoenix.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Melbourne Victory at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Head-to-head: Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
- 5 April 2026Melbourne Victory 0–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 6 February 2026Wellington Phoenix 2–3 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 29 December 2025Melbourne Victory 5–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 12 April 2025Wellington Phoenix 2–3 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 14 February 2025Melbourne Victory 1–0 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 24 November 2024Wellington Phoenix 1–0 Melbourne VictoryA-League
The two sides
Wellington Phoenix carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.39 for Melbourne Victory. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 2.02 for Melbourne Victory. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wellington Phoenix rate 0.55 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Melbourne Victory rate 0.64 and 1.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Melbourne Victory the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Wellington Phoenix against 2.02 for Melbourne Victory. Wellington Phoenix's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.61 for Melbourne Victory.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Wellington Phoenix
- vs Central Coast Mariners25 Oct · A-Leaguewin 36%
- at Newcastle Jets31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 26%
- at Auckland FC7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 26%
- vs Macarthur FC22 Nov · A-Leaguewin 36%
- vs Adelaide United6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 32%
Melbourne Victory
- vs Melbourne City24 Oct · A-Leaguewin 40%
- vs Central Coast Mariners1 Nov · A-Leaguewin 44%
- at Adelaide United8 Nov · A-Leaguewin 37%
- at Auckland FC21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 33%
- at Sydney FC6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.