Sydney FC
vs
Western Sydney Wanderers
A-League prediction
Our model says: Sydney FC 1–0 Western Sydney Wanderers
The model makes it 44% Sydney FC, 29% draw, 27% Western Sydney Wanderers — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sydney FC 1.60, Western Sydney Wanderers 0.99.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: Sydney FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Western Sydney Wanderers 0–2 Sydney FC.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sydney FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sydney FC at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Head-to-head: Sydney FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
- 11 April 2026Western Sydney Wanderers 0–2 Sydney FCA-League
- 31 January 2026Sydney FC 4–1 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 29 November 2025Western Sydney Wanderers 1–0 Sydney FCA-League
- 8 February 2025Sydney FC 3–3 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 23 November 2024Sydney FC 4–2 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 19 October 2024Western Sydney Wanderers 1–2 Sydney FCA-League
The two sides
Sydney FC carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.15 for Western Sydney Wanderers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Sydney FC and 0.99 for Western Sydney Wanderers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sydney FC rate 0.49 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Western Sydney Wanderers rate 0.49 and 1.99.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sydney FC the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sydney FC against 0.99 for Western Sydney Wanderers. Sydney FC's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.99 for Western Sydney Wanderers.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sydney FC
- vs Adelaide United25 Oct · A-Leaguewin 37%
- at Melbourne City31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 36%
- vs Central Coast Mariners6 Nov · A-Leaguewin 41%
- at Brisbane Roar21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 40%
- vs Melbourne Victory6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 35%
Western Sydney Wanderers
- vs Auckland FC24 Oct · A-Leaguewin 26%
- at Macarthur FC31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 31%
- at Melbourne City7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 29%
- vs Adelaide United20 Nov · A-Leaguewin 29%
- vs Perth Glory5 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.