Esenler Erokspor
vs
Keçiörengücü
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Esenler Erokspor 1–0 Keçiörengücü
The model makes it 37% Esenler Erokspor, 30% draw, 33% Keçiörengücü — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Esenler Erokspor 1.22, Keçiörengücü 1.14.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Esenler Erokspor are 16th on 9 points from 10 games; Keçiörengücü are 6th on 17 points from 10 games — 1. Lig.
- Esenler Erokspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Manisa F.K..
- Keçiörengücü are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Iğdır FK.
- Last 4 meetings: Esenler Erokspor 1 win to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Esenler Erokspor 1–0 Keçiörengücü.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Esenler Erokspor at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü
Esenler Erokspor
- D1-1away to Manisa F.K.15 October 2026
- W1-0away to İstanbulspor10 October 2026
- L0-2Fatih Karagümrük19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bursaspor13 September 2026
- L0-3Kayserispor7 September 2026
Keçiörengücü
- D0-0Iğdır FK14 October 2026
- W2-0away to Bodrum FK9 October 2026
- D1-1Sivasspor19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vanspor FK12 September 2026
- W3-0Sarıyer5 September 2026
What these results say
- Esenler Erokspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Keçiörengücü went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Keçiörengücü scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Keçiörengücü had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Esenler Erokspor | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü
- 19 April 2026Esenler Erokspor 1–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 14 December 2025Keçiörengücü 1–1 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
- 5 March 2025Keçiörengücü 2–2 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
- 21 October 2024Esenler Erokspor 2–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
Leading scorers: Esenler Erokspor and Keçiörengücü
Esenler Erokspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Keçiörengücü
GoalsAssists
- M. Diouf52
- F. Ezeh33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Esenler Erokspor carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.53 for Keçiörengücü. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.14 for Keçiörengücü. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Esenler Erokspor rate 0.55 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Keçiörengücü rate 0.72 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Keçiörengücü, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Esenler Erokspor a 0.4% chance of the title and Keçiörengücü 7.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esenler Erokspor the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Esenler Erokspor against 1.14 for Keçiörengücü. Esenler Erokspor's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.36 for Keçiörengücü.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Esenler Erokspor at home · Keçiörengücü away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Esenler Erokspor 10, Keçiörengücü 10.
Esenler Erokspor score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Keçiörengücü have let in 0 there.
Keçiörengücü score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Esenler Erokspor have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Esenler Erokspor
- at Muğlaspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Antalyaspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 39%
- at Boluspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 46%
Keçiörengücü
- vs Manisa F.K.7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 57%
- at İstanbulspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
- vs Kayserispor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.