Vasteras SK FK
vs
Sirius
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 29% Vasteras SK FK, 21% draw, 50% Sirius — fair odds of 3.45, 4.76 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Vasteras SK FK 1.70, Sirius 2.22.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Vasteras SK FK
- L0-3away to IF Elfsborg14 August 2026
- W1-0Djurgardens IF10 August 2026
- L0-6away to Djurgardens IF3 August 2026
- W2-0Orgryte IS24 July 2026
- D0-0away to Mjallby AIF17 July 2026
Sirius
- L0-3BK Hacken21 August 2026
- L3-4away to Mjallby AIF15 August 2026
- D2-2IF Brommapojkarna10 August 2026
- W2-0away to Halmstad3 August 2026
- W4-1IFK Goteborg26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Vasteras SK FK | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 25 |
| 1 | Sirius | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 47 | 26 | +21 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius
- 18 April 2026Sirius 4–1 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 31 August 2024Vasteras SK FK 1–2 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 20 May 2024Sirius 0–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 3 February 2024Sirius 1–3 Vasteras SK FKFriendlies Clubs
- 29 February 2020Sirius 0–3 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
Leading scorers
Vasteras SK FK
- M. Ladefoged9 goals2 assists
Sirius
- R. Ure15 goals2 assists
- I. Bjerkebo13 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vasteras SK FK carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.43 for Sirius. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Vasteras SK FK D-W-L-W-L; Sirius W-W-D-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Vasteras SK FK and 2.22 for Sirius. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasteras SK FK rate 0.43 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sirius rate 0.84 and 2.09.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vasteras SK FK a 0% chance of the title and Sirius 83.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sirius the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK against 2.22 for Sirius. Vasteras SK FK's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/2.09 for Sirius.