Bucheon FC 1995
vs
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 63% Bucheon FC 1995, 15% draw, 22% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 1.59, 6.67 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-2 (6%).
Expected goals: Bucheon FC 1995 3.39, Daejeon Citizen 2.09.
Both teams to score: 85%. Over 2.5 goals: 91%, under 2.5: 9%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Bucheon FC 1995
- W3-2Jeonbuk Motors16 August 2026
- D0-0Gwangju FC8 August 2026
- W3-0away to Gangwon FC1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United26 July 2026
- L2-3FC Anyang22 July 2026
Daejeon Citizen
- L2-4away to FC Seoul15 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Anyang8 August 2026
- W2-0Gwangju FC2 August 2026
- L2-3away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC25 July 2026
- D0-0away to Jeonbuk Motors21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 |
| 10 | Daejeon Citizen | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bucheon FC 1995 carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.44 for Daejeon Citizen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Bucheon FC 1995 L-D-W-D-W; Daejeon Citizen D-L-W-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.39 goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 2.09 for Daejeon Citizen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bucheon FC 1995 rate 0.99 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Daejeon Citizen rate 0.77 and 1.81.
That points to 91% for over two and a half goals and 85% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-2 (6%), 3-1 (6%), 2-2 (5%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucheon FC 1995 the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.39 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 against 2.09 for Daejeon Citizen. Bucheon FC 1995's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.81 for Daejeon Citizen.