Botafogo
vs
Gremio
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Botafogo 1–0 Gremio
The model makes it 48% Botafogo, 28% draw, 24% Gremio — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Botafogo 1.86, Gremio 0.96.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Botafogo vs Gremio
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Botafogo wins, grey are draws, red are Gremio wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botafogo at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Botafogo vs Gremio
Botafogo
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 August 2026
- L2-3Atletico Paranaense24 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria16 August 2026
Gremio
- L1-2Vasco da Gama12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria7 September 2026
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
- L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Botafogo | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 32 |
| 16 | Gremio | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Gremio
- 5 February 2026Gremio 5–3 BotafogoSerie A
- 22 November 2025Botafogo 3–2 GremioSerie A
- 24 September 2025Gremio 1–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 29 September 2024Botafogo 0–0 GremioSerie A
- 16 June 2024Gremio 1–2 BotafogoSerie A
- 9 November 2023Botafogo 3–4 GremioSerie A
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Gremio
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos7 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Botafogo carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.51 for Gremio. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Botafogo and 0.96 for Gremio. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botafogo rate 0.80 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gremio rate 0.73 and 1.43.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botafogo the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Botafogo against 0.96 for Gremio. Botafogo's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.43 for Gremio.