Inter vs Udinese Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Inter 5-3 Udinese.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Inter, 23% draw, 20% Udinese — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter at 57% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter vs Udinese
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Josep MartínezG
- 25Manuel AkanjiD
- 6John StonesD
- 95Alessandro BastoniD
- 17Andy DioufM
- 23Nicolò BarellaM
- 7Piotr ZielińskiM
- 22Henrikh MkhitaryanM
- 30Carlos AugustoM
- 9Marcus ThuramF
- 94Pio EspositoF
- 28Benjamin PavardD
- 21Curtis JonesM
- 32Federico DimarcoD
- 14Ange-Yoan BonnyF
- 5Aleksandar StankovićM
- 49Ivan ProvedelG
- 12Raffaele Di GennaroG
- 31Yann BisseckD
- 8Petar SučićM
- 40Maduka OkoyeG
- 14James AbankwahD
- 27Christian KabaseleD
- 77Enzo EbosseD
- 23Mërgim VojvodaM
- 8Jesper KarlströmM
- 38Lennon MillerM
- 11Hassane KamaraM
- 46Unai GómezF
- 32Jürgen EkkelenkampF
- 9Keinan DavisF
- 7Idrissa GueyeF
- 30Giorgi ChakvetadzeM
- 13Nicolò BertolaD
- 4Sandi LovrićM
- 15Vakoun Issouf BayoF
- 93Daniele PadelliG
- 41Bartosz MrozekG
- 91Lazar JovanovićF
- 6Oier ZarragaM
Form going into Inter vs Udinese
Inter
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Real Madrid8 September 2026
- W3-2Napoli5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cagliari30 August 2026
- W4-1Monza22 August 2026
Udinese
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026
- D1-1Como22 August 2026
What these results say
- Inter scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Inter won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Inter conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 25 |
| 17 | Udinese | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter vs Udinese
- 17 January 2026Udinese 0–1 InterSerie A
- 31 August 2025Inter 1–2 UdineseSerie A
- 30 March 2025Inter 2–1 UdineseSerie A
- 19 December 2024Inter 2–0 UdineseCoppa Italia
- 28 September 2024Udinese 2–3 InterSerie A
Leading scorers: Inter and Udinese
Inter
GoalsAssists
- M. Thuram52
- Lautaro Martínez40
Udinese
GoalsAssists
- J. Ekkelenkamp31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Inter beat Udinese 5–3. The model had made a win for Inter its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Abankwah 9' for Udinese, J. Ekkelenkamp 16' for Udinese, Carlos Augusto 26' for Inter, N. Barella 35' for Inter, M. Thuram 57' for Inter, F. Esposito 67' for Inter, A. Bonny 79' for Inter, I. Gueye 90' for Udinese. On expected goals it finished 3.09–0.79.
How the call on Inter v Udinese has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 57% / 23% / 20%: the biggest move is Inter's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Inter win57%▲ +3
- Draw23%▼ −2
- Udinese win20%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.