Inter
vs
Udinese
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Inter 5-3 Udinese.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Inter, 23% draw, 18% Udinese — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Inter 2.65, Udinese 0.94.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Inter vs Udinese
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter at 59% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter vs Udinese
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Josep MartínezG
- 25Manuel AkanjiD
- 6John StonesD
- 95Alessandro BastoniD
- 17Andy DioufM
- 23Nicolò BarellaM
- 7Piotr ZielińskiM
- 22Henrikh MkhitaryanM
- 30Carlos AugustoM
- 9Marcus ThuramF
- 94Pio EspositoF
- 28Benjamin PavardD
- 21Curtis JonesM
- 32Federico DimarcoD
- 14Ange-Yoan BonnyF
- 5Aleksandar StankovićM
- 49Ivan ProvedelG
- 12Raffaele Di GennaroG
- 31Yann BisseckD
- 8Petar SučićM
- 40Maduka OkoyeG
- 14James AbankwahD
- 27Christian KabaseleD
- 77Enzo EbosseD
- 23Mërgim VojvodaM
- 8Jesper KarlströmM
- 38Lennon MillerM
- 11Hassane KamaraM
- 46Unai GómezF
- 32Jürgen EkkelenkampF
- 9Keinan DavisF
- 7Idrissa GueyeF
- 30Giorgi ChakvetadzeM
- 13Nicolò BertolaD
- 4Sandi LovrićM
- 15Vakoun Issouf BayoF
- 93Daniele PadelliG
- 41Bartosz MrozekG
- 91Lazar JovanovićF
- 6Oier ZarragaM
Form going into Inter vs Udinese
Inter
- W3-2Napoli5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cagliari30 August 2026
- W4-1Monza22 August 2026
Udinese
- L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026
- D1-1Como22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 12 |
| 13 | Udinese | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter vs Udinese
- 17 January 2026Udinese 0–1 InterSerie A
- 31 August 2025Inter 1–2 UdineseSerie A
- 30 March 2025Inter 2–1 UdineseSerie A
- 19 December 2024Inter 2–0 UdineseCoppa Italia
- 28 September 2024Udinese 2–3 InterSerie A
- 8 April 2024Udinese 1–2 InterSerie A
Leading scorers: Inter and Udinese
Inter
- H. Çalhanoğlu2 goals
- Lautaro Martínez2 goals
Udinese
- H. Kamara2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.65 goals for Inter and 0.94 for Udinese; the game produced 5 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: J. Abankwah 9' (Udinese), J. Ekkelenkamp 16' (Udinese), Carlos Augusto 26' (Inter), N. Barella 35' (Inter), M. Thuram 57' (Inter), F. Esposito 67' (Inter), A. Bonny 79' (Inter), I. Gueye 90' (Udinese).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Inter against 0.94 for Udinese. Inter's attack/defence rating is 1.73/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.94 for Udinese.