Como vs Parma Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Como 2-1 Parma.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Como, 28% draw, 25% Parma — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Como at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Como vs Parma
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 27Yan CoutoD
- 4Jacobo RamónD
- 2Marc KempfD
- 16KaikiD
- 5Máximo PerroneM
- 7Lucas Da CunhaM
- 11Assane DiaoM
- 10Nico PazM
- 20Martin BaturinaM
- 90Moise KeanF
- 17Jesús RodriguezF
- 8Maxence CaqueretM
- 9Anastasios DouvikasF
- 6Luis MillaM
- 21Samuele RicciM
- 22Mauro VigoritoG
- 1Jean ButezG
- 28Ivan SmolčićD
- 3Álex ValleD
- 40Edoardo CorviG
- 34Diego CarlosD
- 37Mariano TroiloD
- 15Enrico DelpratoD
- 27Sascha BritschgiM
- 4Vincent SierroM
- 16Mandela KeitaM
- 14Emanuele ValeriM
- 19El Bilal TouréF
- 76Simone LontaniF
- 23Nesta ElphegeF
- 20Matija FriganF
- 10Adrián BernabéM
- 9David RomeroF
- 80Giovanni FabbianM
- 11Pontus AlmqvistF
- 22Simone GhidottiG
- 30Giovanni DaffaraG
- 5Lautaro ValentiD
- 72Dominik DrobnicD
Form going into Como vs Parma
Como
All competitions we cover
- W4-1RB Leipzig10 September 2026
- W4-1away to Genoa4 September 2026
- W2-1away to Napoli30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Udinese22 August 2026
Parma
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Monza6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026
- L0-1Cagliari22 August 2026
What these results say
- Como went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Como scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Como conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Como | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 20 |
| 19 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Como vs Parma
- 17 May 2026Como 1–0 ParmaSerie A
- 25 October 2025Parma 0–0 ComoSerie A
- 3 May 2025Parma 0–1 ComoSerie A
- 19 October 2024Como 1–1 ParmaSerie A
- 24 February 2024Como 1–1 ParmaSerie B
Leading scorers: Como and Parma
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas50
- N. Paz33
- M. Baturina31
Parma
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Como beat Parma 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Como at 47%. The goals: J. Ramon 23' for Como, Kaiki 83' for Como, D. Romero 90+2' for Parma. On expected goals it finished 3.24–1.23.