Como
vs
Parma
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Como 2-1 Parma.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Como, 26% draw, 24% Parma — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Como 2.10, Parma 1.10.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Como vs Parma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Como at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Como vs Parma
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 27Yan CoutoD
- 4Jacobo RamónD
- 2Marc KempfD
- 16KaikiD
- 5Máximo PerroneM
- 7Lucas Da CunhaM
- 11Assane DiaoM
- 10Nico PazM
- 20Martin BaturinaM
- 90Moise KeanF
- 17Jesús RodriguezF
- 8Maxence CaqueretM
- 9Anastasios DouvikasF
- 6Luis MillaM
- 21Samuele RicciM
- 22Mauro VigoritoG
- 1Jean ButezG
- 28Ivan SmolčićD
- 3Álex ValleD
- 40Edoardo CorviG
- 34Diego CarlosD
- 37Mariano TroiloD
- 15Enrico DelpratoD
- 27Sascha BritschgiM
- 4Vincent SierroM
- 16Mandela KeitaM
- 14Emanuele ValeriM
- 19El Bilal TouréF
- 76Simone LontaniF
- 23Nesta ElphegeF
- 20Matija FriganF
- 10Adrián BernabéM
- 9David RomeroF
- 80Giovanni FabbianM
- 11Pontus AlmqvistF
- 22Simone GhidottiG
- 30Giovanni DaffaraG
- 5Lautaro ValentiD
- 72Dominik DrobnicD
Form going into Como vs Parma
Como
- W4-1away to Genoa4 September 2026
- W2-1away to Napoli30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Udinese22 August 2026
Parma
- D1-1Monza6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026
- L0-1Cagliari22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Como | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 17 | Parma | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Como vs Parma
- 17 May 2026Como 1–0 ParmaSerie A
- 25 October 2025Parma 0–0 ComoSerie A
- 3 May 2025Parma 0–1 ComoSerie A
- 19 October 2024Como 1–1 ParmaSerie A
- 24 February 2024Como 1–1 ParmaSerie B
- 20 October 2023Parma 2–1 ComoSerie B
Leading scorers: Como and Parma
Como
- M. Baturina2 goals1 assists
- Assane Diao2 goals1 assists
- T. Douvikas2 goals
Parma
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.10 goals for Como and 1.10 for Parma; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: J. Ramon 23' (Como), Kaiki 83' (Como), D. Romero 90' (Parma).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Como the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for Como against 1.1 for Parma. Como's attack/defence rating is 1.45/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/0.89 for Parma.