18 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Monza vs Sassuolo Serie A prediction & result

Monza
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Monza 2-1 Sassuolo.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Monza, 28% draw, 32% Sassuolo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Monza at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Monza96%Draw4%Sassuolo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Eddy Kouadio
30'
⚽G. Varelaassist: S. Birindelli
51'
🔁R. Mangasout: A. Bakoune
56'
🔁E. Akinsanmiroout: F. Ondoa
56'
🔁P. Cutroneout: D. Mota
56'
⚽G. Varela (pen)
63'
64'
🔁N. Maticout: L. Lipani
64'
🔁K. Thorstvedtout: K. Bowie
72'
🔁S. Espositoout: V. Adzic
72'
🔁D. Berardiout: B. Dominguez
Michael Folorunsho
74'
🔁J. Robinsonout: M. Mout
82'
82'
🔁D. Bakolaout: L. Skjellerup
Samuele Birindelli
85'
85'
Luca Lipani
88'
⚽V. Adzic
Gustavo Varela
90+2'
🔁S. Birindelliout: Y. Maye
90+3'

Match stats — Monza vs Sassuolo

35%Possession65%
15Shots20
6On target8
7Corners5
1.45xG1.58

Goals against chances

Monza2 from 1.45 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sassuolo1 from 1.58 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Monza 3-4-2-1
  • 1N. TornqvistG
  • 60E. KouadioD
  • 3L. LucchesiD
  • 44A. CarboniD
  • 19S. BirindelliM
  • 90M. FolorunshoM
  • 14E. AkinsanmiroM
  • 7R. MangasM
  • 10P. CutroneF
  • 46J. RobinsonF
  • 9G. VarelaF
Substitutes
  • 20D. ThiamG
  • 43A. StrajnarG
  • 6V. AntovD
  • 2S. GoglichidzeD
  • 24A. BakouneD
  • 5Y. MayeD
  • 21L. ColomboM
  • 8F. OndoaM
  • 28A. ColpaniM
Coach: Ivan Juric
Sassuolo 4-3-3
  • 49A. MuricG
  • 46S. CinquegranoD
  • 15D. Caleta-CarD
  • 16F. LeysenD
  • 3J. DoigD
  • 42K. ThorstvedtM
  • 18N. MaticM
  • 50D. BakolaM
  • 10D. BerardiF
  • 94S. EspositoF
  • 45A. LaurienteF
Substitutes
  • 80S. TuratiG
  • 12G. SatalinoG
  • 26C. OdenthalD
  • 20I. Van der BremptD
  • 33R. ObradorD
  • 8A. GhionM
  • 35L. LipaniM
  • 17V. AdzicM
  • 55I. SulemanaM
Coach: Alberto Aquilani

Form going into Monza vs Sassuolo

Monza

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Lecce13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
  • L2-3Udinese29 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Inter22 August 2026

Sassuolo

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Juventus13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
  • W2-1Torino29 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Atalanta23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Monza did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Monza scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Monza conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sassuolo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Sassuolo had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Monza92161622-67
15Sassuolo92251422-88

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Monza vs Sassuolo

  • 3 August 2024Monza 2–2 SassuoloFriendlies Clubs
  • 28 January 2024Monza 1–0 SassuoloSerie A
  • 2 October 2023Sassuolo 0–1 MonzaSerie A
  • 19 May 2023Sassuolo 1–2 MonzaSerie A
  • 22 January 2023Monza 1–1 SassuoloSerie A

The full Monza vs Sassuolo record →

Leading scorers: Monza and Sassuolo

Monza

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Varela81

Sassuolo

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Monza beat Sassuolo 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Monza at 40%. The goals: G. Varela 51' for Monza, G. Varela (penalty) 63' for Monza, V. Adzic 88' for Sassuolo. On expected goals it finished 1.45–1.58.

How the call on Monza v Sassuolo has moved

First published on 4 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Monza's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Monza win40%▼ −6
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Sassuolo win32%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.