Torino
vs
AS Roma
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Torino, 29% draw, 39% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Torino 1.31, AS Roma 1.56.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Torino vs AS Roma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Torino vs AS Roma
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20Lucas PerriG
- 45Rafik BelghaliD
- 5Eray CömertD
- 23Saúl CocoD
- 15Pietro ComuzzoD
- 29Niccolò FortiniD
- 66Gvidas GineitisM
- 8Rolando MandragoraM
- 28Kian Fitz-JimM
- 18Giovanni SimeoneF
- 10Nikola VlašićF
- 21Daniel BragançaM
- 77Alessio CacciamaniM
- 6Emirhan İlkhanM
- 13Ricardo RodríguezD
- 91Duván ZapataF
- 76Lapo SivieroG
- 26Diego MascardiG
- 2Nathan PattersonD
- 44Ardian IsmajliD
- 99Mile SvilarG
- 23Gianluca ManciniD
- 26Leonardo BalerdiD
- 22Mario HermosoD
- 77Emanuele LulliM
- 4Bryan CristanteM
- 61Niccolò PisilliM
- 20Nahuel MolinaM
- 21Paulo DybalaF
- 18Matías SouléF
- 14Donyell MalenF
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 9Santiago CastroF
- 17Manu KonéM
- 15Marten de RoonM
- 2Devyne RenschD
- 95Pierluigi GolliniG
- 70Giorgio De MarziG
- 87Daniele GhilardiD
- 3Konstantinos KoulierakisD
Form going into Torino vs AS Roma
Torino
- W2-1away to Fiorentina5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sassuolo29 August 2026
- L1-2AC Milan23 August 2026
AS Roma
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
- W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Torino | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 1 | AS Roma | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Torino vs AS Roma
- 18 January 2026Torino 0–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 13 January 2026AS Roma 2–3 TorinoCoppa Italia
- 14 September 2025AS Roma 0–1 TorinoSerie A
- 25 May 2025Torino 0–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 31 October 2024AS Roma 1–0 TorinoSerie A
- 26 February 2024AS Roma 3–2 TorinoSerie A
Leading scorers: Torino and AS Roma
Torino
- C. Adams2 goals
AS Roma
- D. Malen5 goals
- M. Soulé2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.31 goals for Torino and 1.56 for AS Roma; the game produced 0 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: D. Malen 40' (AS Roma), N. Pisilli 90' (AS Roma).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Torino against 1.56 for AS Roma. Torino's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.38/0.8 for AS Roma.