Torino vs AS Roma Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Torino, 28% draw, 38% AS Roma — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Torino vs AS Roma
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20Lucas PerriG
- 45Rafik BelghaliD
- 5Eray CömertD
- 23Saúl CocoD
- 15Pietro ComuzzoD
- 29Niccolò FortiniD
- 66Gvidas GineitisM
- 8Rolando MandragoraM
- 28Kian Fitz-JimM
- 18Giovanni SimeoneF
- 10Nikola VlašićF
- 21Daniel BragançaM
- 77Alessio CacciamaniM
- 6Emirhan İlkhanM
- 13Ricardo RodríguezD
- 91Duván ZapataF
- 76Lapo SivieroG
- 26Diego MascardiG
- 2Nathan PattersonD
- 44Ardian IsmajliD
- 99Mile SvilarG
- 23Gianluca ManciniD
- 26Leonardo BalerdiD
- 22Mario HermosoD
- 77Emanuele LulliM
- 4Bryan CristanteM
- 61Niccolò PisilliM
- 20Nahuel MolinaM
- 21Paulo DybalaF
- 18Matías SouléF
- 14Donyell MalenF
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 9Santiago CastroF
- 17Manu KonéM
- 15Marten de RoonM
- 2Devyne RenschD
- 95Pierluigi GolliniG
- 70Giorgio De MarziG
- 87Daniele GhilardiD
- 3Konstantinos KoulierakisD
Form going into Torino vs AS Roma
Torino
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Fiorentina5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sassuolo29 August 2026
- L1-2AC Milan23 August 2026
AS Roma
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
- W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026
What these results say
- AS Roma went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- AS Roma scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- AS Roma won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Torino | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Torino vs AS Roma
- 18 January 2026Torino 0–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 13 January 2026AS Roma 2–3 TorinoCoppa Italia
- 14 September 2025AS Roma 0–1 TorinoSerie A
- 25 May 2025Torino 0–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 31 October 2024AS Roma 1–0 TorinoSerie A
Leading scorers: Torino and AS Roma
Torino
GoalsAssists
- C. Adams40
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen71
- M. Soulé31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AS Roma won 2–0 at Torino. The model had made a win for AS Roma its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: D. Malen 40' for AS Roma, N. Pisilli 90+3' for AS Roma. On expected goals it finished 0.76–1.91.
How the call on Torino v AS Roma has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is AS Roma's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Torino win34%▲ +3
- Draw28%▲ +1
- AS Roma win38%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.