Botafogo vs Gremio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo 3-2 Gremio.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Botafogo, 27% draw, 16% Gremio — fair odds of 1.75, 3.70 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Botafogo at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo vs Gremio
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 3Arthur ChavesD
- 33L. MonzonD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 75HuguinhoM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 7Junior SantosM
- 88EdenilsonM
- 10A. MontoroM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 17WarlesonG
- 29PaulinhoD
- 21MarcalD
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 25AllanM
- 91D. AndradeM
- 34G. JustinoD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 1WevertonG
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 82WallaceD
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 7C. PavonM
- 10F. KrovinovicM
- 77J. CabralM
- 95Carlos ViniciusF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 31G. MenegonG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 18Joao PedroD
- 4Walter KannemannD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
Form going into Botafogo vs Gremio
Botafogo
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
- D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026
Gremio
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Gremio
- 5 February 2026Gremio 5–3 BotafogoSerie A
- 22 November 2025Botafogo 3–2 GremioSerie A
- 24 September 2025Gremio 1–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 29 September 2024Botafogo 0–0 GremioSerie A
- 16 June 2024Gremio 1–2 BotafogoSerie A
- 9 November 2023Botafogo 3–4 GremioSerie A
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Gremio
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.