Botafogo
vs
Gremio
The model makes it 56% Botafogo, 21% draw, 23% Gremio — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Botafogo 2.19, Gremio 1.37.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Gremio
- 5 February 2026Gremio 5–3 BotafogoSerie A
- 22 November 2025Botafogo 3–2 GremioSerie A
- 24 September 2025Gremio 1–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 29 September 2024Botafogo 0–0 GremioSerie A
- 16 June 2024Gremio 1–2 BotafogoSerie A
- 9 November 2023Botafogo 3–4 GremioSerie A
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botafogo the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Botafogo against 1.37 for Gremio. Botafogo's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.45 for Gremio.