Botafogo vs Gremio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo 3-2 Gremio.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Botafogo, 27% draw, 16% Gremio — fair odds of 1.75, 3.70 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botafogo at 57% here. Across 2804 settled matches, 669 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo vs Gremio
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 3Arthur ChavesD
- 33L. MonzonD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 75HuguinhoM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 7Junior SantosM
- 88EdenilsonM
- 10A. MontoroM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 17WarlesonG
- 29PaulinhoD
- 21MarcalD
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 25AllanM
- 91D. AndradeM
- 34G. JustinoD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 1WevertonG
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 82WallaceD
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 7C. PavonM
- 10F. KrovinovicM
- 77J. CabralM
- 95Carlos ViniciusF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 31G. MenegonG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 18Joao PedroD
- 4Walter KannemannD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
Form going into Botafogo vs Gremio
Botafogo
- W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
- D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026
Gremio
- D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Gremio
- 5 February 2026Gremio 5–3 BotafogoSerie A
- 22 November 2025Botafogo 3–2 GremioSerie A
- 24 September 2025Gremio 1–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 29 September 2024Botafogo 0–0 GremioSerie A
- 16 June 2024Gremio 1–2 BotafogoSerie A
- 9 November 2023Botafogo 3–4 GremioSerie A
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Gremio
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos9 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.