Internacional vs Flamengo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Internacional 1-1 Flamengo.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Internacional, 22% draw, 47% Flamengo — fair odds of 3.23, 4.55 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Internacional vs Flamengo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Matheus CunhaG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 25Gabriel MercadoD
- 3Guillermo MaripánD
- 28VitinhoM
- 5Rodrigo VillagraM
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 6Matheus BahiaM
- 7Johan CarboneroF
- 26Alexandro BernabeiF
- 10Alan PatrickF
- 18Jose JuninhoD
- 27Paulinho PaulaM
- 30Calebe GonçalvesM
- 4Félix TorresD
- 9AlerrandroF
- 12AnthoniG
- 46Pedro KauãD
- 53Luiz FelipeD
- 31AllexM
- 1Agustín RossiG
- 2Guillermo VarelaD
- 44VitãoD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 52Evertton AraujoM
- 21JorginhoM
- 15Jorge CarrascalM
- 10Giorgian de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 13DaniloD
- 5Erick PulgarM
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 18Nicolás de la CruzM
- 42AndrewG
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 8Saúl ÑíguezM
Form going into Internacional vs Flamengo
Internacional
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Atletico Paranaense25 July 2026
- L1-2Cruzeiro23 July 2026
Flamengo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Sao Paulo26 July 2026
- W4-0away to Chapecoense23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Internacional | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 35 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 28 | +40 | 73 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Internacional vs Flamengo
- 4 February 2026Flamengo 1–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 21 August 2025Internacional 0–2 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 17 August 2025Internacional 1–3 FlamengoSerie A
- 14 August 2025Flamengo 1–0 InternacionalCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 30 March 2025Flamengo 1–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 1 December 2024Flamengo 3–2 InternacionalSerie A
Leading scorers: Internacional and Flamengo
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro186
- Samuel Lino119
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Internacional and Flamengo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Flamengo at 47% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Vitinho 27' for Internacional, Samuel Lino 79' for Flamengo. On expected goals it finished 1.38–1.45.