28 July 2026, 18:15 UTC

Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Celje
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Celje 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Celje, 24% draw, 40% Egnatia Rrogozhinë — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3–3 Celje (22 Jul) →

Celje went through on penalties, after 4–4 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽D. Hrka (OG)
⚽M. Kvesic
34'
60'
🔁A. Yagoout: E. Ndreca
60'
🔁D. Adjessaout: I. Gruda
P. Daniel
68'
🔁M. Zabukovnikout: Y. Dukuly
69'
🔁M. Avdyliout: R. Pozeg
69'
Y. Dukuly
73'
81'
Fernando Medeiros
🔁A. Kucysout: A. Kotnik
81'
🔁P. Sirvysout: A. Dionkou
81'
82'
🔁K. Loukiliout: N. Ajetovikj
🔁P. Danielout: I. Calusic
89'
90+1'
I. Gruda
90+3'
G. Jaime
⚽M. Kvesic (pen)
97'
98'
🔁E. Sotaout: G. Smajli
98'
🔁A. Kryeziuout: J. Montenegro
A. Dionkou
100'
🔁M. Kvesicout: D. Vuklisevic
105+3'
114'
⚽G. Smajli
A. Tutyskinas
115'
116'
🔁G. Jaimeout: A. Aleksi
⚽S. Seslar (pen)
120+1'
120+1'
⚽E. Bitri (pen)
⚽A. Tutyskinas (pen)
120+2'
120+2'
⚽A. Xhemajli (pen)
⚽Y. Dukuly (pen)
120+3'
120+3'
⚽E. Ndreca (pen)
⚽I. Calusic (pen)
120+4'

Line-ups

Celje 4-3-3
  • 1Z. LebanG
  • 2P. SirvysD
  • 4D. HrkaM
  • 6A. TutyskinasD
  • 33L. KoutrisD
  • 8M. KvesicM
  • 13P. DanielM
  • 19M. ZabukovnikM
  • 10S. SeslarM
  • 47A. Kucys
  • 11M. AvdyliM
Substitutes
  • 12L. KolarG
  • 23Z. FrelihG
  • 3D. VuklisevicD
  • 7F. JevsenakM
  • 17A. KotnikF
  • 20A. DionkouD
  • 25V. TushaM
  • 27I. CalusicD
  • 77M. IvansekM
Coach: Vitor Campelos
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3-5-2
  • 98M. DajsinaniG
  • 28E. SotaD
  • 33E. BitriD
  • 19A. XhemajliD
  • 22G. JaimeD
  • 20K. LoukiliM
  • 17A. KryeziuM
  • 7Fernando MedeirosM
  • 29A. YagoM
  • 2D. AdjessaF
  • 10A. AlbaneseM
Substitutes
  • 1L. TandilashviliG
  • 12B. PujaG
  • 6A. AleksiM
  • 16E. NdrecaD
  • 24N. AjetovikjD
  • 55G. SmajliD
  • 77I. GrudaM
  • 99J. MontenegroF
Coach: Nevil Dede

Form going into Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Celje

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 July 2026

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Celje22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  • 22 July 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3–3 CeljeUEFA Champions League

The result against the call

Celje and Egnatia Rrogozhinë drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 40% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.