Celje
vs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Final score: Celje 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Celje, 23% draw, 35% Egnatia Rrogozhinë — fair odds of 2.38, 4.35 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Celje 1.89, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.73.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Match stats: Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Goals: D. Hrka (own goal) 21' for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, M. Kvesic 34' for Celje, M. Kvesic (penalty) 97' for Celje, G. Smajli 114' for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, S. Seslar (penalty) 120+1' for Celje, E. Bitri (penalty) 120+1' for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, A. Tutyskinas (penalty) 120+2' for Celje, A. Xhemajli (penalty) 120+2' for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, Y. Dukuly (penalty) 120+3' for Celje, E. Ndreca (penalty) 120+3' for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, I. Calusic (penalty) 120+4' for Celje.
Head-to-head: Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- 22 July 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3–3 CeljeUEFA Champions League
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celje the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Celje against 1.73 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Celje's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.75 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë.