28 July 2026, 18:15 UTC

Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Celje
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Celje 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Celje, 24% draw, 40% Egnatia Rrogozhinë — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽D. Hrka (OG)
⚽M. Kvesic
34'
60'
🔁A. Yagoout: E. Ndreca
60'
🔁D. Adjessaout: I. Gruda
P. Daniel
68'
🔁M. Zabukovnikout: Y. Dukuly
69'
🔁M. Avdyliout: R. Pozeg
69'
Y. Dukuly
73'
81'
Fernando Medeiros
🔁A. Kucysout: A. Kotnik
81'
🔁P. Sirvysout: A. Dionkou
81'
82'
🔁K. Loukiliout: N. Ajetovikj
🔁P. Danielout: I. Calusic
89'
90+1'
I. Gruda
90+3'
G. Jaime
⚽M. Kvesic (pen)
97'
98'
🔁E. Sotaout: G. Smajli
98'
🔁A. Kryeziuout: J. Montenegro
A. Dionkou
100'
🔁M. Kvesicout: D. Vuklisevic
105+3'
114'
⚽G. Smajli
A. Tutyskinas
115'
116'
🔁G. Jaimeout: A. Aleksi
⚽S. Seslar (pen)
120+1'
120+1'
⚽E. Bitri (pen)
⚽A. Tutyskinas (pen)
120+2'
120+2'
⚽A. Xhemajli (pen)
⚽Y. Dukuly (pen)
120+3'
120+3'
⚽E. Ndreca (pen)
⚽I. Calusic (pen)
120+4'

Line-ups

Celje 4-3-3
  • 1Z. LebanG
  • 2P. SirvysD
  • 4D. HrkaM
  • 6A. TutyskinasD
  • 33L. KoutrisD
  • 8M. KvesicM
  • 13P. DanielM
  • 19M. ZabukovnikM
  • 10S. SeslarM
  • 47A. Kucys
  • 11M. AvdyliM
Substitutes
  • 12L. KolarG
  • 23Z. FrelihG
  • 3D. VuklisevicD
  • 7F. JevsenakM
  • 17A. KotnikF
  • 20A. DionkouD
  • 25V. TushaM
  • 27I. CalusicD
  • 77M. IvansekM
Coach: Vitor Campelos
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3-5-2
  • 98M. DajsinaniG
  • 28E. SotaD
  • 33E. BitriD
  • 19A. XhemajliD
  • 22G. JaimeD
  • 20K. LoukiliM
  • 17A. KryeziuM
  • 7Fernando MedeirosM
  • 29A. YagoM
  • 2D. AdjessaF
  • 10A. AlbaneseM
Substitutes
  • 1L. TandilashviliG
  • 12B. PujaG
  • 6A. AleksiM
  • 16E. NdrecaD
  • 24N. AjetovikjD
  • 55G. SmajliD
  • 77I. GrudaM
  • 99J. MontenegroF
Coach: Nevil Dede

Form going into Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Celje

  • D3-3away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 July 2026

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  • D3-3Celje22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  • 28 July 2026Celje 1–1 Egnatia RrogozhinëUEFA Champions League
  • 22 July 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3–3 CeljeUEFA Champions League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.