Santa Clara vs Nacional Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Santa Clara 2-2 Nacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Santa Clara, 23% draw, 15% Nacional — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Santa Clara at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santa Clara vs Nacional
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lucas FrancaG
- 2Diogo CalilaD
- 23S. LimaD
- 4P. PachecoD
- 5Guilherme RomaoD
- 6P. FerreiraM
- 41Daniel BorgesM
- 99SorrisoM
- 8J. TavaresM
- 70Vinicius LopesM
- 9G. PacienciaF
- 12NenecaG
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 20T. RibeiroM
- 37RildoF
- 85A. InfanteD
- 88Hiago Santos
- 11Welinton TorraoF
- 17VasconcelosM
- 21E. FernandesD
- 1R. MarinG
- 34Leo SantosD
- 6Matheus DiasD
- 38Ze VitorD
- 52Wesley GasolinaM
- 28LizieroM
- 26J. SilvaM
- 7M. JensenM
- 8M. BaezaF
- 99Pablo RuanF
- 10Daniel JuniorF
- 50K. V. Medeiros de FreitasG
- 22F. SoaresM
- 15C. LabidiM
- 30WattsM
- 2D. I. de la CruzD
- 23Mateus IseppeM
- 88DeivisonM
- 11S. GavrielM
- 33C. GoncalvesD
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 | Nacional | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santa Clara vs Nacional
- 11 May 2026Santa Clara 2–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 11 January 2026Nacional 3–3 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 30 March 2025Santa Clara 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 4 November 2024Nacional 2–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 17 March 2024Santa Clara 0–1 NacionalSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Santa Clara and Nacional
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santa Clara and Nacional drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Santa Clara at 62% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: G. Paciencia 19' for Santa Clara, G. Paciencia 21' for Santa Clara, Liziero (penalty) 36' for Nacional, M. Baeza 45' for Nacional. On expected goals it finished 1.43–1.23.