Santa Clara
vs
Nacional
The model makes it 64% Santa Clara, 21% draw, 15% Nacional — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Santa Clara 2.04, Nacional 0.87.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Santa Clara vs Nacional
- 11 May 2026Santa Clara 2–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 11 January 2026Nacional 3–3 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 30 March 2025Santa Clara 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 4 November 2024Nacional 2–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 17 March 2024Santa Clara 0–1 NacionalSegunda Liga
- 11 January 2024Santa Clara 1–1 NacionalTaça de Portugal
The two sides
Santa Clara carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.66 for Nacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for Santa Clara and 0.87 for Nacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santa Clara rate 0.93 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nacional rate 0.79 and 1.16.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 234 correct results out of 488 settled predictions (48%), with 47 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Clara the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Santa Clara against 0.87 for Nacional. Santa Clara's attack/defence rating is 0.93/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.16 for Nacional.