Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Grazer AK 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% Grazer AK, 24% draw, 56% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 5.00, 4.17 and 1.79.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Red Bull Salzburg at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23C. StankovićG
- 82B. OwusuD
- 21M. SollbauerD
- 27Y. OberleitnerD
- 28AndersonM
- 34P. MichorlM
- 24C. CvetkoM
- 32L. KlassenM
- 14J. ItalianoM
- 10C. LichtenbergerM
- 25A. HofleitnerF
- 11M. GroßeF
- 8T. KochM
- 9D. MadernerF
- 17S. MandeyM
- 1J. MeierhoferG
- 7A. SmitsF
- 37T. TrummerM
- 3L. Vraa-JensenD
- 72Petar MarkovicD
- 1C. FrüchtlG
- 22S. LainerD
- 44K. BomaD
- 21T. DrexlerD
- 31D. SchmidD
- 32A. BarryM
- 13F. KrätzigM
- 35J. LindstrømM
- 8S. KitanoM
- 11Y. VertessenM
- 19K. KonatéF
- 41Nikola ŠarčevićG
- 47Valentin ZabranskyD
- 7U. TohumcuM
- 30G. DiakitéF
- 33A. CamaraM
- 20E. BaidooF
- 9H. TabakovićF
- 15B. MazurekM
Form going into Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
Grazer AK
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Austria Vienna19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach12 September 2026
- D0-0Wolfsberger AC29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ried21 August 2026
- L0-8away to Rapid Vienna16 August 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Sturm Graz20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Levski Sofia17 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ried11 September 2026
- W5-1Rapid Vienna2 September 2026
- W4-1Austria Vienna30 August 2026
What these results say
- Grazer AK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Grazer AK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grazer AK | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 10 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 9 | +24 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
- 15 February 2026Grazer AK 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 9 August 2025Red Bull Salzburg 5–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 2 November 2024Red Bull Salzburg 0–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 2 August 2024Grazer AK 2–3 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 4 February 2023Red Bull Salzburg 3–4 Grazer AKFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg
Grazer AK
GoalsAssists
- A. Hofleitner40
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- H. Tabaković80
- K. Konaté40
- Y. Vertessen33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Red Bull Salzburg at 56% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.63–1.09.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Grazer AK a 38.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.6% after a win, 37.4% after a draw, 42.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 37.4%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
For Red Bull Salzburg the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 41.2% going in: 45.7% after a win, 34.3% after a draw, 32.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 34.3%, 6.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Grazer AK v Red Bull Salzburg has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 23% / 26% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 20% / 24% / 56%: the biggest move is Red Bull Salzburg's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Grazer AK win20%▼ −3
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Red Bull Salzburg win56%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.