Grazer AK
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Grazer AK 1–2 Red Bull Salzburg
The model makes it 23% Grazer AK, 26% draw, 51% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 4.35, 3.85 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Grazer AK 1.01, Red Bull Salzburg 2.09.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 51% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
Grazer AK
- D2-2Austria Vienna19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach12 September 2026
- D0-0Wolfsberger AC29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ried21 August 2026
- L0-8away to Rapid Vienna16 August 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
- W3-0Sturm Graz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ried11 September 2026
- W5-1Rapid Vienna2 September 2026
- W4-1Austria Vienna30 August 2026
- W3-0away to WSG Wattens16 August 2026
What these results say
- Grazer AK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Grazer AK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grazer AK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 8 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
- 15 February 2026Grazer AK 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 9 August 2025Red Bull Salzburg 5–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 2 November 2024Red Bull Salzburg 0–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 2 August 2024Grazer AK 2–3 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 4 February 2023Red Bull Salzburg 3–4 Grazer AKFriendlies Clubs
- 3 April 2019Grazer AK 0–6 Red Bull SalzburgCup
Leading scorers: Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg
Grazer AK
- A. Hofleitner3 goals
Red Bull Salzburg
- K. Konaté4 goals
- H. Tabaković3 goals
- Y. Vertessen2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Grazer AK carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.7 for Red Bull Salzburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Grazer AK and 2.09 for Red Bull Salzburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Grazer AK rate 0.53 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Red Bull Salzburg rate 0.86 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Grazer AK a 0% chance of the title and Red Bull Salzburg 45.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Grazer AK against 2.09 for Red Bull Salzburg. Grazer AK's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.17 for Red Bull Salzburg.