10 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

WSG Wattens vs Ried Bundesliga prediction & result

Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Innsbruck
Referee: Julian Weinberger, Austria
Full time1 – 2

Final score: WSG Wattens 1-2 Ried.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% WSG Wattens, 27% draw, 35% Ried — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

WSG Wattens at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

WSG Wattens0%Draw4%Ried96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nikolai Baden Frederiksen
8'
15'
⚽Stefan Schwab (pen)
43'
⚽Philipp Pomer
Marco Boras
45+1'
🔁Husein Balićout: Moritz Wels
45'
50'
•Evan Eghosa Aisowieren
🔁Thomas Goigingerout: Murat Satin
69'
70'
🔁Martin Rasnerout: Lukas Malicsek
70'
🔁J. Rhodesout: Oliver Sorg
76'
Andreas Leitner
77'
🔁Evan Eghosa Aisowierenout: Isaac Thelin
🔁M. Olakigbeout: Lukas Hinterseer
78'
🔁Nikolai Baden Frederiksenout: Thomas Sabitzer
78'
82'
Fabian Hubert Rossdorfer
83'
🔁Philipp Pomerout: Dejan Radonjic
🔁Marc Striednigout: David Kubatta
90+2'

Match stats — WSG Wattens vs Ried

64%Possession36%
22Shots13
8On target4
7Corners5
1.48xG1.62

Goals against chances

WSG Wattens1 from 1.48 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ried2 from 1.62 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

WSG Wattens 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. HamzićG
  • 5D. MurrayD
  • 23M. BorasD
  • 3D. GugganigD
  • 28M. OswaldD
  • 6Marc StriednigM
  • 30M. TafernerM
  • 18H. BalićM
  • 36T. GoigingerM
  • 17M. OlakigbeM
  • 8N. FrederiksenF
Substitutes
  • 43N. ČelićM
  • 13A. EckmayrG
  • 32Raphael GschösserM
  • 16L. HinterseerF
  • 27D. JauneggD
  • 14D. KubattaD
  • 10T. SabitzerF
  • 11M. ŞatinM
  • 37M. WelsM
Coach: P. Semlic
Ried 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. LeitnerG
  • 18F. RossdorferD
  • 28S. ChukwudiD
  • 30O. SteurerD
  • 17P. PomerD
  • 6Y. MaartM
  • 8M. RasnerM
  • 12A. BajićM
  • 22S. SchwabM
  • 11J. RhodesM
  • 47Evan Eghosa AisowierenF
Substitutes
  • 29L. CapanD
  • 92I. Kiese ThelinF
  • 19T. Lund JensenM
  • 4L. MalicsekD
  • 10J. NasraweM
  • 5D. RadonjicD
  • 7O. SorgD
  • 77F. WimmerG
  • 15J. BoguoF
Coach: M. Despotović

Form going into WSG Wattens vs Ried

WSG Wattens

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Rapid Vienna18 September 2026
  • D2-2TSV Hartberg13 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Austria Vienna2 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Austria Lustenau28 August 2026
  • L0-3Red Bull Salzburg16 August 2026

Ried

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1Wolfsberger AC20 September 2026
  • D1-1Red Bull Salzburg11 September 2026
  • L2-3away to TSV Hartberg30 August 2026
  • W1-0Grazer AK21 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Lask Linz14 August 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for WSG Wattens had three goals or more.
  • Ried scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ried conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Ried.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7WSG Wattens123451518-313
6Ried124442122-116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: WSG Wattens vs Ried

  • 25 April 2026WSG Wattens 1–0 RiedBundesliga
  • 14 March 2026Ried 2–1 WSG WattensBundesliga
  • 22 February 2026WSG Wattens 1–1 RiedBundesliga
  • 4 October 2025Ried 2–0 WSG WattensBundesliga

Leading scorers: WSG Wattens and Ried

WSG Wattens

GoalsAssists

  • N. Frederiksen50

Ried

GoalsAssists

  • S. Schwab42
  • P. Pomer41
  • I. Kiese Thelin40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ried won 2–1 at WSG Wattens. The model had leaned towards a win for WSG Wattens at 38% and given a win for Ried 35%. The goals: Nikolai Baden Frederiksen 8' for WSG Wattens, Stefan Schwab (penalty) 15' for Ried, Philipp Pomer 43' for Ried. On expected goals it finished 1.48–1.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave WSG Wattens a 27.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.5% after a win, 29.2% after a draw, 36.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.3%, 8.4 points higher than before the match.

For Ried the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.0% going in: 9.4% after a win, 16.2% after a draw, 22.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.4%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on WSG Wattens v Ried has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. WSG Wattens win38%▲ +1
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Ried win35%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.