FC St. Gallen vs Benfica UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: FC St. Gallen 2-1 Benfica.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC St. Gallen, 20% draw, 42% Benfica — fair odds of 2.63, 5.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
First leg of the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Benfica v FC St. Gallen, 30 Jul →
Benfica went through 6–2 on aggregate.
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1L. Ati ZigiG
- 26T. GaalD
- 4J. StanicD
- 36C. OkorojiM
- 28H. VandermerschM
- 16L. GortlerM
- 10L. DaschnerM
- 11C. BoukhalfaM
- 64M. StevanovicM
- 14A. BaldeF
- 7C. WitzigM
- 25L. WatkowiakG
- 23B. FazlijiM
- 47E. OwusuF
- 9A. HunzikerF
- 20L. Frokaj
- 63C. KonietzkeM
- 31D. BesioF
- 74J. RuizD
- 68M. Heydari
- 1A. TrubinG
- 6A. BahD
- 4A. SilvaD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 16ManuM
- 13J. KaminskiM
- 27Rafa SilvaM
- 10G. SudakovM
- 73M. FigueiredoM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 24S. SoaresG
- 9F. IvanovicF
- 77G. MoreiraM
- 58D. BanjaquiD
- 62J. NetoD
- 72AnisioF
- 47T. GouveiaF
- 17A. DedicD
- 44T. AraujoD
FC St. Gallen and Benfica in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC St. Gallen | Super League | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 16 |
| 1 | Benfica | UEFA Europa League | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 9 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super League · UEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: FC St. Gallen and Benfica
FC St. Gallen
GoalsAssists
- A. Balde31
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC St. Gallen beat Benfica 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Benfica at 42% and given a win for FC St. Gallen 38%. The goals: A. Balde 37' for FC St. Gallen, Rafa Silva 44' for Benfica, T. Gaal 80' for FC St. Gallen.