Mamelodi Sundowns
vs
Durban City
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Mamelodi Sundowns 1–0 Durban City
The model makes it 60% Mamelodi Sundowns, 25% draw, 15% Durban City — fair odds of 1.67, 4.00 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Mamelodi Sundowns 1.85, Durban City 0.67.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Mamelodi Sundowns are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Mamelodi Sundowns are top on 23 points from 9 games; Durban City are 11th on 7 points from 8 games — Premier Soccer League.
- Mamelodi Sundowns are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-1 win away to Richards Bay.
- Durban City are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Amazulu.
- Last 2 meetings: Mamelodi Sundowns 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 April 2026, ended Durban City 0–1 Mamelodi Sundowns.
More South African Premier Soccer League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mamelodi Sundowns at 60% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City
Mamelodi Sundowns
- W4-1away to Richards Bay13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Chippa United12 September 2026
- W3-0Siwelele9 September 2026
- W2-1away to Golden Arrows6 September 2026
- W2-0Milford FC2 September 2026
Durban City
- L1-2Amazulu13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Milford FC20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Orlando Pirates17 September 2026
- D0-0Stellenbosch1 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kruger United25 August 2026
What these results say
- Mamelodi Sundowns went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Durban City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Durban City had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 23 |
| 11 | Durban City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City
- 7 April 2026Durban City 0–1 Mamelodi SundownsPremier Soccer League
- 20 September 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 3–1 Durban CityPremier Soccer League
Leading scorers: Mamelodi Sundowns and Durban City
Mamelodi Sundowns
GoalsAssists
- T. Matthews34
- B. León31
- I. Rayners30
Durban City
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Mamelodi Sundowns carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.29 for Durban City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.67 for Durban City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mamelodi Sundowns rate 1.04 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Durban City rate 0.47 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mamelodi Sundowns a 23.6% chance of the title and Durban City 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mamelodi Sundowns the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Mamelodi Sundowns against 0.67 for Durban City. Mamelodi Sundowns's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.48 for Durban City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mamelodi Sundowns at home · Durban City away
League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Mamelodi Sundowns 9, Durban City 8.
Mamelodi Sundowns score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Durban City have let in 0 there.
Durban City score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Mamelodi Sundowns have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Mamelodi Sundowns
- at Kruger United28 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 59%
- vs Polokwane City5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 61%
- vs Sekhukhune United15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 60%
- at Stellenbosch18 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 45%
- vs Orlando Pirates9 Jan · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 30%
Durban City
- at TS Galaxy4 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 33%
- vs Polokwane City27 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 36%
- at Siwelele6 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 30%
- vs Marumo Gallants15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 46%
- vs Chippa United20 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.