KuPS
vs
Inter Turku
Finnish Premier League prediction
Our model says: KuPS 1–0 Inter Turku
The model makes it 35% KuPS, 31% draw, 34% Inter Turku — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: KuPS 1.11, Inter Turku 1.08.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: KuPS and Inter Turku are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. KuPS's rating is built from 60 Finnish Premier League matches and Inter Turku's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 516 matches.
Key facts
- KuPS are 3rd on 51 points from 28 games; Inter Turku are top on 55 points from 29 games — Finnish Premier League.
- KuPS have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to VPS.
- Inter Turku have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to VPS.
- Last 6 meetings: KuPS 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 October 2026, ended Inter Turku 1–0 KuPS.
More Finnish Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: KuPS vs Inter Turku
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KuPS at 35% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into KuPS vs Inter Turku
KuPS
Finnish Premier League
- W2-0VPS18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku11 October 2026
- L0-1AC Oulu8 October 2026
- W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
- D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
Inter Turku
Finnish Premier League
- W1-0away to VPS24 October 2026
- L1-2AC Oulu17 October 2026
- W1-0KuPS11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gnistan7 October 2026
- W1-0away to AC Oulu18 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
- Inter Turku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Turku kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Turku had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Finnish Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | KuPS | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 43 | 26 | +17 | 51 |
| 1 | Inter Turku | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 35 | 20 | +15 | 55 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: KuPS vs Inter Turku
- 11 October 2026Inter Turku 1–0 KuPSFinnish Premier League
- 31 August 2026Inter Turku 1–0 KuPSFinnish Premier League
- 30 May 2026KuPS 1–1 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
- 2 November 2025KuPS 3–2 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
- 5 October 2025Inter Turku 0–3 KuPSFinnish Premier League
- 17 August 2025KuPS 2–1 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: KuPS and Inter Turku
KuPS
GoalsAssists
- J. Moreno61
- B. Armah40
- J. Luyeye-Lutumba31
Inter Turku
GoalsAssists
- H. Sjögrell72
- C. Jephta30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
KuPS carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.52 for Inter Turku. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for KuPS and 1.08 for Inter Turku. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KuPS rate 0.60 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter Turku rate 0.54 and 1.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Inter Turku, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives KuPS a 17.9% chance of the title and Inter Turku 55.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KuPS the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for KuPS against 1.08 for Inter Turku. KuPS's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.11 for Inter Turku.
How the model reaches 35% for KuPS to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for KuPS to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, KuPS's ratings take away 22 points and Inter Turku's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- KuPS's ratings20%−22
- Inter Turku's ratings35%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
KuPS at home · Inter Turku away
League matches only, Finnish Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Finnish Premier League matches this season: KuPS 28, Inter Turku 29.
KuPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Inter Turku have let in 5 there.
Inter Turku score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); KuPS have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
KuPS
- at SC Braga26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 9%
Inter Turku
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.