Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Paranaense 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Atletico Paranaense, 22% draw, 24% RB Bragantino — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Paranaense at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23SantosG
- 29G. BenavidezD
- 33F. AguirreD
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JadsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 8Joao CruzF
- 9K. ViverosF
- 1MycaelG
- 25DantasD
- 3LeoD
- 2Gilberto JuniorD
- 27J. PortillaM
- 47ChiquetiM
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 53Dudu KogitzkiM
- 18Tiago VolpiG
- 23A. Sant'AnnaD
- 14Pedro HenriqueD
- 16Gustavo MarquesD
- 29Juninho CapixabaD
- 35Matheus FernandesM
- 6GabrielM
- 32J. HerreraM
- 21Lucas BarbosaM
- 17VinicinhoM
- 9I. PittaF
- 1CleitonG
- 51Caue NascimentoD
- 3Eduardo SantosD
- 2G. RodriguezD
- 34A. HurtadoD
- 4Alix ViniciusD
- 7Eric RamiresM
- 5FabinhoM
- 15I. SosaM
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Santos9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Corinthians30 July 2026
- W2-0Internacional25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo23 July 2026
RB Bragantino
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Corinthians9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro29 July 2026
- D0-0Coritiba26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Fluminense17 July 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Paranaense went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- RB Bragantino did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for RB Bragantino had two goals or fewer.
- RB Bragantino failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino
- 11 July 2026RB Bragantino 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseFriendlies Clubs
- 25 February 2026RB Bragantino 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 5 December 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–2 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 7 August 2024RB Bragantino 2–3 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
- 31 July 2024Atletico Paranaense 2–0 RB BragantinoCopa Do Brasil
- 21 July 2024RB Bragantino 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and RB Bragantino
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
RB Bragantino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Paranaense and RB Bragantino drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Paranaense at 54% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Pedro Henrique 67' for RB Bragantino, K. A. Calderon Vargas 75' for Atletico Paranaense. On expected goals it finished 2.63–1.25.