15 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

CF Montreal vs DC United Major League Soccer prediction & result

Saputo Stadium, Montreal
Full time1 – 1

Final score: CF Montreal 1-1 DC United.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% CF Montreal, 21% draw, 33% DC United — fair odds of 2.17, 4.76 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

CF Montreal at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CF Montreal6%Draw89%DC United5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
Jackson Hopkins
•Hennadii Synchuk
48'
49'
Keisuke Kurokawa
⚽P. Owusu (pen)
50'
🔁B. Ceballosout: D. Bugaj
62'
🔁F. Herbersout: M. Longstaff
62'
62'
🔁J. Hopkinsout: J. Stroud
Luca Petrasso
63'
66'
⚽T. Bariboassist: K. Nono
🔁N. Streitout: D. Rios
77'
80'
🔁K. Nonoout: H. Kijima
88'
🔁B. Servaniaout: N. Markovic
88'
🔁L. Munteanuout: N. Ordaz
🔁V. Loturiout: O. Escobar
90'

Match stats — CF Montreal vs DC United

67%Possession33%
20Shots7
7On target2
5Corners3
1.88xG0.56

Goals against chances

CF Montreal1 from 1.88 xGless than the chances were worth
DC United1 from 0.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CF Montreal 4-3-3
  • 31T. GillierG
  • 3B. CeballosD
  • 2J. NealD
  • 4B. VeraD
  • 13L. PetrassoD
  • 22V. LoturiM
  • 7D. PereiraM
  • 21F. HerbersM
  • 18G. SynchukF
  • 9P. OwusuF
  • 23N. StreitF
Substitutes
  • 1S. BrezaG
  • 27D. BugajD
  • 5B. CraigD
  • 8M. LongstaffM
  • 26I. LosenkoM
  • 29O. EscobarF
  • 6S. PietteM
  • 35O. Graham-RoacheF
  • 14D. RiosF
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy
DC United 4-4-2
  • 1S. JohnsonG
  • 5S. HeftiD
  • 4M. PeltolaD
  • 13S. NealisD
  • 6K. KurokawaD
  • 2K. NonoM
  • 21A. DozzellM
  • 23B. ServaniaM
  • 25J. HopkinsM
  • 11L. MunteanuF
  • 9T. BariboF
Substitutes
  • 26A. BonoG
  • 27N. MarkovicD
  • 77H. KijimaM
  • 30C. ClarkM
  • 48G. TurnerM
  • 40K. CastilloM
  • 8J. StroudM
  • 22N. OrdazF
  • 7PeglowF
Coach: Rene Weiler

Form going into CF Montreal vs DC United

CF Montreal

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2New England Revolution1 August 2026
  • L0-1Inter Miami25 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Nashville SC23 July 2026

DC United

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Nashville SC1 August 2026
  • W2-1Toronto FC25 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Houston Dynamo23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15CF Montreal3468203769-3226
14DC United34712153961-2233

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs DC United

  • 23 May 2026DC United 4–4 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 16 August 2025CF Montreal 1–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 15 March 2025DC United 0–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 29 May 2024CF Montreal 4–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 30 March 2024DC United 1–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 26 July 2023CF Montreal 0–1 DC UnitedLeagues Cup

Leading scorers: CF Montreal and DC United

CF Montreal

GoalsAssists

  • P. Owusu156

DC United

GoalsAssists

  • T. Baribo161

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CF Montreal and DC United drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Montreal at 46% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: P. Owusu (penalty) 50' for CF Montreal, T. Baribo 66' for DC United. On expected goals it finished 1.88–0.56.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.