16 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Chapecoense vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result

Arena Condá, Chapecó
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Chapecoense 3-3 Bahia.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Chapecoense, 26% draw, 47% Bahia — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bahia at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽A. Veliz (pen)
⚽Giovanni Augustoassist: Yago Felipe
19'
42'
⚽Kauan (OG)
🔁Heitorout: Everton
46'
🔁K. Ramirezout: Tulio
46'
🔁Bruno Matiasout: F. Rossi
46'
⚽Marcinhoassist: Giovanni Augusto
48'
65'
⚽Nicolas Acevedoassist: Jean Lucas
66'
🔁R. Gomezout: Caio Alexandre
66'
🔁Jean Lucasout: Erick
67'
🔁Luciano Jubaout: Ze Guilherme
67'
🔁Kaue Juniorout: M. Sanabria
⚽Tulioassist: Giovanni Augusto
71'
🔁Fernandoout: Bruno Pacheco
78'
🔁Yago Felipeout: David Antunes
78'
83'
🔁Rodrigoout: Michel Araujo
84'
Mateo Sanabria
Camilo
89'
90+2'
Erick Pulga

Match stats — Chapecoense vs Bahia

35%Possession65%
12Shots19
3On target4
3Corners5
1.25xG2.43

Goals against chances

Chapecoense3 from 1.25 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bahia3 from 2.43 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chapecoense 4-3-3
  • 98AndersonG
  • 5HeitorD
  • 21KauanD
  • 3Eduardo DomaD
  • 12FernandoD
  • 88Yago FelipeM
  • 27Camilo ReijersM
  • 16Bruno MatiasM
  • 94K. RamirezF
  • 10Giovanni AugustoF
  • 7MarcinhoF
Substitutes
  • 30Matheus AurelioG
  • 15Rafael ThyereD
  • 26EvertonD
  • 91Bruno PachecoD
  • 25Victor CaetanoD
  • 6ManchaD
  • 70Rubens RicoldiM
  • 19David AntunesM
  • 97EnioM
Coach: Lacerda Rafael
Bahia 3-1-4-2
  • 1Ronaldo StradaG
  • 31R. GomezD
  • 33David DuarteD
  • 21S. RamosD
  • 5Nicolas AcevedoM
  • 57Kaue JuniorM
  • 6Jean LucasM
  • 46Luciano JubaM
  • 11RodrigoM
  • 9A. VelizF
  • 16Erick PulgaF
Substitutes
  • 17G. HerreraG
  • 4KanuD
  • 3M. MorenoD
  • 44Marcos VictorD
  • 66Ze GuilhermeD
  • 8Caio AlexandreM
  • 14ErickM
  • 12Willian JoseF
  • 15Michel AraujoM
Coach: Ceni Rogerio

Form going into Chapecoense vs Bahia

Chapecoense

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Coritiba8 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Santos25 July 2026
  • L0-4Flamengo23 July 2026
  • L0-2away to Bahia17 July 2026

Bahia

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Vasco da Gama9 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Fluminense30 July 2026
  • D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
  • W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026

What these results say

  • Chapecoense did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Chapecoense had three goals or more.
  • Bahia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Bahia had two goals or fewer.
  • Bahia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Chapecoense3349203368-3521
6Bahia34141195045+553

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Bahia

  • 17 July 2026Bahia 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 1 October 2022Chapecoense 3–1 BahiaSerie B
  • 14 June 2022Bahia 0–1 ChapecoenseSerie B
  • 24 October 2021Bahia 3–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 4 July 2021Chapecoense 0–2 BahiaSerie A
  • 7 November 2019Bahia 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie A

The full Chapecoense vs Bahia record →

Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Bahia

Chapecoense

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Bahia

GoalsAssists

  • Luciano Juba112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chapecoense and Bahia drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Bahia at 47% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Veliz (penalty) 13' for Bahia, Giovanni Augusto 19' for Chapecoense, Kauan (own goal) 42' for Bahia, Marcinho 48' for Chapecoense, Nicolas Acevedo 65' for Bahia, Tulio 71' for Chapecoense. On expected goals it finished 1.25–2.43.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.