Atletico Mineiro
vs
Gremio
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 71% Atletico Mineiro, 16% draw, 13% Gremio — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Atletico Mineiro 2.78, Gremio 1.16.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Atletico Mineiro
- D2-2away to Remo8 August 2026
- W2-1away to Palmeiras26 July 2026
- D1-1Bahia21 July 2026
- W1-0away to Vasco da Gama31 May 2026
- L0-1away to Corinthians24 May 2026
Gremio
- W2-1Sao Paulo8 August 2026
- D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026
- L1-3Corinthians30 May 2026
- W3-2Santos23 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atletico Mineiro | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 29 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Atletico Mineiro
No league goals recorded yet.
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Mineiro carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.62 for Gremio. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Atletico Mineiro L-W-D-W-D; Gremio W-L-L-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.78 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.16 for Gremio. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Mineiro rate 1.14 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gremio rate 0.82 and 1.29.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Mineiro the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.78 expected goals for Atletico Mineiro against 1.16 for Gremio. Atletico Mineiro's attack/defence rating is 1.14/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.29 for Gremio.