Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Gremio.
Before kick-off the model made it 71% Atletico Mineiro, 16% draw, 13% Gremio — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Mineiro at 71%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22EversonG
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 4Ruan TressoldiD
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 6R. LodiD
- 39M. CisseM
- 21A. FrancoM
- 28CuelloM
- 30Victor HugoM
- 17Igor GomesM
- 9M. CassierraF
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 40VitaoD
- 36K. PasciniD
- 19ReinierM
- 8MayconM
- 15K. CastanoM
- 25T. PerezM
- 11BernardM
- 1WevertonG
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 82WallaceD
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 7C. PavonM
- 5J. NardoniM
- 17DodiM
- 9F. AmuzuM
- 95Carlos ViniciusF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 4Walter KannemannD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 10F. KrovinovicM
- 50Bernardo ZorteaM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio
Atletico Mineiro
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Remo8 August 2026
- W1-0RB Bragantino29 July 2026
- W2-1away to Palmeiras26 July 2026
- D1-1Bahia21 July 2026
Gremio
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Sao Paulo8 August 2026
- L2-3away to Botafogo29 July 2026
- D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Mineiro went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Gremio scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Gremio conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Gremio.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 50 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio
- 26 February 2026Gremio 2–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 17 August 2025Atletico Mineiro 1–3 GremioSerie A
- 29 March 2025Gremio 2–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 9 October 2024Atletico Mineiro 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 1 September 2024Gremio 2–3 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 26 November 2023Atletico Mineiro 3–0 GremioSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Gremio
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Mineiro beat Gremio 3–0. The model had made a win for Atletico Mineiro its most likely outcome, at 71%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Vitor Hugo 19' for Atletico Mineiro, Cuello 62' for Atletico Mineiro, Cuello 66' for Atletico Mineiro. On expected goals it finished 2.52–0.41.