Corinthians
vs
Cruzeiro
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 42% Corinthians, 25% draw, 33% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Corinthians 1.69, Cruzeiro 1.47.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Corinthians
- D0-0Atletico Paranaense30 July 2026
- D1-1away to Bahia26 July 2026
- W3-0Remo23 July 2026
- W3-1away to Gremio30 May 2026
- W1-0Atletico Mineiro24 May 2026
Cruzeiro
- W3-1Mirassol9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
- D1-1Fluminense31 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Corinthians carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.87 for Cruzeiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Corinthians W-W-W-D-D; Cruzeiro D-W-L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Corinthians and 1.47 for Cruzeiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Corinthians rate 0.82 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cruzeiro rate 1.12 and 1.09.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cruzeiro, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Corinthians the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Corinthians against 1.47 for Cruzeiro. Corinthians's attack/defence rating is 0.82/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/1.09 for Cruzeiro.