Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Corinthians 1-2 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Corinthians, 24% draw, 27% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Corinthians at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Corinthians vs Cruzeiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 29AllanM
- 37Kaio CesarM
- 8R. GarroM
- 7Breno BidonM
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 51KaueG
- 26F. AngileriD
- 20P. MilansD
- 4Joao PedroD
- 55I. MachadoD
- 77J. LingardM
- 23M. PereiraM
- 14RanieleM
- 80Alex SantanaM
- 81Otavio CostaG
- 23FagnerD
- 43Joao MarceloD
- 34Jonathan JesusD
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 67J. CostaM
- 5Ze LucasM
- 29L. RomeroM
- 38Felipe MoraisM
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 51V. LamounierG
- 27G. RojasD
- 2Kaua MoraesD
- 12William FurtadoD
- 15Fabricio BrunoD
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 8GersonM
- 94WandersonF
Form going into Corinthians vs Cruzeiro
Corinthians
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to RB Bragantino9 August 2026
- D0-0Atletico Paranaense30 July 2026
- D1-1away to Bahia26 July 2026
- W3-0Remo23 July 2026
Cruzeiro
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Mirassol9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
What these results say
- Corinthians went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Corinthians scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Corinthians kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cruzeiro won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cruzeiro scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 37 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Cruzeiro
- 25 February 2026Cruzeiro 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 14 December 2025Corinthians 1–2 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
- 11 December 2025Cruzeiro 0–1 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
- 23 November 2025Cruzeiro 3–0 CorinthiansSerie A
- 23 July 2025Corinthians 0–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 20 November 2024Corinthians 2–1 CruzeiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Corinthians and Cruzeiro
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge142
- Matheus Pereira97
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruzeiro won 2–1 at Corinthians. The model had leaned towards a win for Corinthians at 49% and given a win for Cruzeiro 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bruno Rodrigues 36' for Cruzeiro, Gustavo Henrique 58' for Corinthians, Wanderson 82' for Cruzeiro. On expected goals it finished 1.36–1.28.