Fluminense vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Fluminense, 22% draw, 16% Palmeiras — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Fluminense at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1FabioG
- 23GugaD
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 44JemmesD
- 6ReneD
- 35HerculesM
- 8MartinelliM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 10PH GansoM
- 30Y. SoteldoM
- 7HulkF
- 98Vitor EudesG
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 29J. MillanD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 16NonatoM
- 94OtavioM
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 26MuriloD
- 15G. GomezD
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 40Allan EliasM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 11J. AriasM
- 42J. LopezF
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 21Kaique PereiraG
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 56Arthur GabrielD
- 43BenedettiD
- 18MauricioM
- 32E. MartinezM
- 19R. SosaF
- 50Luis PachecoM
Form going into Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Fluminense
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Botafogo9 August 2026
- D0-0Bahia30 July 2026
- D1-1away to Gremio26 July 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino17 July 2026
Palmeiras
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Internacional9 August 2026
- W4-0away to Vitoria30 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Mineiro26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Coritiba22 July 2026
What these results say
- Fluminense went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Fluminense did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Fluminense had two goals or fewer.
- Palmeiras scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Palmeiras had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 73 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Palmeiras
- 26 February 2026Palmeiras 2–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 November 2025Palmeiras 0–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 July 2025Fluminense 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 8 December 2024Palmeiras 0–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 25 July 2024Fluminense 1–0 PalmeirasSerie A
- 3 December 2023Palmeiras 1–0 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Palmeiras
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López107
- Maurício101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fluminense beat Palmeiras 3–2. The model had made a win for Fluminense its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: G. Gomez 10' for Palmeiras, Hulk 42' for Fluminense, Mauricio 82' for Palmeiras, K. Serna 85' for Fluminense, G. Cano 90' for Fluminense. On expected goals it finished 2.72–1.68.