Atletico Madrid
vs
Real Madrid
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Atletico Madrid 1–2 Real Madrid
The model makes it 32% Atletico Madrid, 29% draw, 39% Real Madrid — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 1.25, Real Madrid 1.52.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Atletico Madrid wins, grey are draws, red are Real Madrid wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Madrid at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
- W3-0away to Real Sociedad13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
- W2-0Malaga19 August 2026
Real Madrid
- W4-1Rayo Vallecano12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
- W4-0Malaga30 August 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad26 August 2026
- W2-1away to Espanyol22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atletico Madrid | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 10 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
- 22 March 2026Real Madrid 3–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 8 January 2026Atletico Madrid 1–2 Real MadridSuper Cup
- 27 September 2025Atletico Madrid 5–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 12 March 2025Atletico Madrid 1–0 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
- 4 March 2025Real Madrid 2–1 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
- 8 February 2025Real Madrid 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
- Álex Baena3 goals1 assists
- G. Simeone2 goals1 assists
Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappé6 goals1 assists
- J. Bellingham3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Madrid carry a model rating of 6.87 against 7.12 for Real Madrid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.52 for Real Madrid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Madrid rate 1.01 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Madrid rate 1.30 and 0.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Atletico Madrid against 1.52 for Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.3/0.76 for Real Madrid.