20 September 2026, 14:15 UTC

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid La Liga prediction & result

Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Atletico Madrid, 29% draw, 34% Real Madrid — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atletico Madrid at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Madrid97%Draw3%Real Madrid0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Diego Pablo Simeone
6'
Marc Pubill
35'
•Cristian Romero
38'
Cristian Romero
38'
🔁Marc Pubillout: Koke
45'
49'
Denzel Dumfries
51'
•Dean Huijsen
52'
Dean Huijsen
⚽Alejandro Grimaldo (pen)
53'
54'
🔁Arda Gülerout: Antonio Rüdiger
54'
🔁Viníciusout: Yan Diomande
⚽Jonathan Davidassist: Giuliano Simeone Baldini
59'
🔁Jonathan Davidout: Julián Álvarez
62'
🔁Alejandro Baena Rodríguezout: Ademola Lookman
67'
71'
🔁Aurelien Tchouameniout: Eduardo Camavinga
78'
Jude Bellingham
82'
🔁Jude Bellinghamout: Bernardo Silva
🔁Cristian Romeroout: Robin Le Normand
89'
🔁Lee Kang-Inout: Morten Hjulmand
89'
89'
⚽Antonio Rüdigerassist: Bernardo Silva

Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

61%Possession39%
18Shots8
9On target3
3Corners1

Line-ups

Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
  • 13J. OblakG
  • 18Marc PubillD
  • 21C. RomeroD
  • 17D. HanckoD
  • 22Álex GrimaldoD
  • 20G. SimeoneM
  • 14Marcos LlorenteM
  • 5J. CardosoM
  • 10Álex BaenaM
  • 7Lee Kang-InF
  • 15J. DavidF
Substitutes
  • 46J. CastilloM
  • 19J. ÁlvarezF
  • 27J. DominguezD
  • 23M. HjulmandM
  • 6KokeM
  • 24Robin Le NormandD
  • 11A. LookmanF
  • 4Rodrigo MendozaM
  • 1J. MussoG
Coach: D. Simeone
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. CourtoisG
  • 24D. DumfriesD
  • 16I. KonatéD
  • 4D. HuijsenD
  • 17Marc CucurellaD
  • 8F. ValverdeM
  • 14A. TchouaméniM
  • 15A. GülerM
  • 5J. BellinghamM
  • 7Vinícius JúniorM
  • 10Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes
  • 2Raúl AsencioD
  • 6E. CamavingaM
  • 18Álvaro FernándezD
  • 21Brahim DíazM
  • 25Y. DiomandeF
  • 9EndrickF
  • 19Carlos EspíF
  • 13A. LuninG
  • 27Thiago PitarchM
Coach: José Mourinho

Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid

La Liga

  • W4-0Osasuna16 September 2026

Real Madrid

La Liga

  • W3-2away to Elche15 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Atletico Madrid10811208+1225
3Real Madrid108022510+1524

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

  • 22 March 2026Real Madrid 3–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 8 January 2026Atletico Madrid 1–2 Real MadridSuper Cup
  • 27 September 2025Atletico Madrid 5–2 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 12 March 2025Atletico Madrid 1–0 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
  • 4 March 2025Real Madrid 2–1 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League

The full Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid record →

Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid

Atletico Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Álex Baena52
  • J. David32

Real Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Kylian Mbappé112
  • J. Bellingham33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Atletico Madrid at 37%. The goals: Alejandro Grimaldo (penalty) 53' for Atletico Madrid, Jonathan David 59' for Atletico Madrid, Antonio Rüdiger 89' for Real Madrid. Sent off: Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid) 52'.

How the call on Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 12 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Atletico Madrid's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Atletico Madrid win37%▲ +5
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Real Madrid win34%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.