Valencia vs Real Sociedad La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Valencia 2-3 Real Sociedad.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Valencia, 32% draw, 32% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valencia at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valencia vs Real Sociedad
Line-ups
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 18PepeluD
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 7A. DanjumaM
- 8Javi GuerraF
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 36Iker CórdobaD
- 15A. DiengM
- 10H. ElliottM
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 27David OtorbiF
- 29Alex PanachD
- 19Dani RabaF
- 11Luis RiojaF
- 39R. SatoM
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 34Luken BeitiaD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 12J. OchiengM
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 24L. SučićF
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 7BarrenetxeaF
- 22Héctor FortD
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 14T. KuboF
- 29Alex GarciaF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 19M. SarrD
Form going into Valencia vs Real Sociedad
Valencia
La Liga
- W1-0away to Alaves15 September 2026
Real Sociedad
La Liga
- L0-3Atletico Madrid13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valencia vs Real Sociedad
- 17 May 2026Real Sociedad 3–4 ValenciaLa Liga
- 16 August 2025Valencia 1–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 19 January 2025Valencia 1–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 28 September 2024Real Sociedad 3–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 16 May 2024Real Sociedad 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga
The result against the call
Real Sociedad won 3–2 at Valencia. The model had leaned towards a win for Valencia at 36% and given a win for Real Sociedad 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Luka Sučić 26' for Real Sociedad, Aaron Mayol 57' for Valencia, Carlos Soler (penalty) 75' for Real Sociedad, Luken Beitia Aguirregomezcorta (own goal) 84' for Valencia, Ander Barrenetxea 90+1' for Real Sociedad. Sent off: Orri Steinn Óskarsson (Real Sociedad) 90+6'.
How the call on Valencia v Real Sociedad has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 12 updates, it read 36% / 32% / 32%: the biggest move is Valencia's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Valencia win36%▼ −5
- Draw32%▲ +3
- Real Sociedad win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.