Villarreal vs Levante La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Villarreal 3-1 Levante.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Villarreal, 28% draw, 31% Levante — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Villarreal at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Villarreal vs Levante
Line-ups
- 25P. GulácsiG
- 3A. FreemanD
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 24N. SalibaM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 17T. BuchananM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 11Ilias AkhomachF
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 13Rubén GómezG
- 2Logan CostaD
- 16C. MaciaM
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 21T. OluwaseyiF
- 19N. PépéF
- 1Luíz JúniorG
- 13M. RyanG
- 22J. ToljanD
- 4DelaD
- 2A. MandiD
- 23Manu SánchezD
- 18E. BardeliM
- 20Oriol ReyM
- 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
- 7BruguiF
- 9Iván RomeroF
- 24T. FernándezF
- 17Víctor GarcíaD
- 14Jorge CabelloD
- 27Paco CortésF
- 1Pablo CuñatG
- 11Yanis MusuayiF
- 3IfeanyiIfeanyi NdukweD
- 29Nacho PérezD
- 10P. RatkovF
- 6RequeM
Form going into Villarreal vs Levante
Villarreal
La Liga
- W3-1away to Malaga17 September 2026
Levante
All competitions we cover
- L2-4Barcelona13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malaga6 September 2026
- W5-2Real Betis29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Osasuna24 August 2026
- L0-3away to Espanyol16 August 2026
What these results say
- Levante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Levante
- 5 August 2026Villarreal 1–0 LevanteFriendlies Clubs
- 2 May 2026Villarreal 5–1 LevanteLa Liga
- 18 February 2026Levante 0–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 3 August 2022Villarreal 3–1 LevanteFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Villarreal and Levante
Villarreal
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui51
- Iván Romero30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Villarreal beat Levante 3–1. The model had made a win for Villarreal its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ayoze Pérez 41' for Villarreal, Iván Romero 42' for Levante, Alberto Moleiro 54' for Villarreal, Georges Mikautadze 86' for Villarreal.
How the call on Villarreal v Levante has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 15 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Villarreal's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Villarreal win41%▼ −3
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Levante win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.