Getafe
vs
Malaga
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Getafe 1–0 Malaga
The model makes it 38% Getafe, 32% draw, 30% Malaga — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Getafe 1.18, Malaga 0.92.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Getafe vs Malaga
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Getafe wins, grey are draws, red are Malaga wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Getafe at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Getafe vs Malaga
Getafe
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna13 September 2026
- D1-1Celta Vigo7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Osasuna31 August 2026
- W1-0Racing Santander23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Alaves15 August 2026
Malaga
- D1-1away to Celta Vigo13 September 2026
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Real Madrid30 August 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Getafe | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Getafe vs Malaga
- 19 May 2018Malaga 0–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 12 January 2018Getafe 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 5 February 2016Malaga 3–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 18 September 2015Getafe 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 28 February 2015Malaga 3–2 GetafeLa Liga
- 28 September 2014Getafe 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Getafe carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.8 for Malaga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Getafe and 0.92 for Malaga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Getafe rate 0.80 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Malaga rate 0.81 and 0.91.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Getafe the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Getafe against 0.92 for Malaga. Getafe's attack/defence rating is 0.8/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/0.91 for Malaga.