Getafe vs Malaga La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Getafe 1-0 Malaga.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Getafe, 32% draw, 32% Malaga — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Getafe at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Getafe vs Malaga
Line-ups
- 13David SoriaG
- 21Andrés GarcíaD
- 2D. DakonamD
- 24Z. RomeroD
- 22J. MojicaD
- 20Iván AzónM
- 11Ramón TerratsM
- 8N. GudeljM
- 16Francho SerranoM
- 10M. SatrianoM
- 19E. ÜnalF
- 26J. ValouD
- 4S. SazonovD
- 9Borja MayoralF
- 23O. MangalaM
- 1J. LetáčekG
- 31M. HamdouneD
- 35Diego FerrerG
- 3DavinchiD
- 15S. BoselliD
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 31RafitaD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 25Juan BerrocalD
- 12José SalinasD
- 14Rafa RodríguezM
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 8Carlos DotorM
- 22Dani LorenzoM
- 11Joaquín MuñozM
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 32J. FernandezF
- 3PugaD
- 5Álex PastorD
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 18Pablo MartínezM
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
Form going into Getafe vs Malaga
Getafe
La Liga
- L0-1away to Real Betis17 September 2026
Malaga
La Liga
- L1-3Villarreal17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Getafe vs Malaga
- 19 May 2018Malaga 0–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 12 January 2018Getafe 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 5 February 2016Malaga 3–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 18 September 2015Getafe 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 28 February 2015Malaga 3–2 GetafeLa Liga
Leading scorers: Getafe and Malaga
Getafe
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Getafe beat Malaga 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Getafe at 36%. The goal: Iván Azón 85' for Getafe.
How the call on Getafe v Malaga has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 41% / 31% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 36% / 32% / 32%: the biggest move is Getafe's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Getafe win36%▼ −5
- Draw32%▲ +1
- Malaga win32%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.