Deportivo La Coruna
vs
Real Betis
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Real Betis
The model makes it 35% Deportivo La Coruna, 27% draw, 38% Real Betis — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.64, Real Betis 1.79.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Deportivo La Coruna wins, grey are draws, red are Real Betis wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Betis at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
- D1-1away to Getafe13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Villarreal5 September 2026
- W3-1Valencia30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Malaga24 August 2026
- D1-1Elche17 August 2026
Real Betis
- W2-1away to Villarreal14 September 2026
- W1-0Real Madrid4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Levante29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Valencia25 August 2026
- W1-0Real Sociedad21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruna | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis
- 12 February 2018Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 Real BetisLa Liga
- 16 September 2017Real Betis 2–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 8 March 2017Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Real BetisLa Liga
- 26 August 2016Real Betis 0–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 13 February 2016Deportivo La Coruna 2–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 24 September 2015Real Betis 1–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
- P. Aubameyang5 goals2 assists
Real Betis
- Rodrigo Riquelme2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportivo La Coruna carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.93 for Real Betis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.79 for Real Betis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo La Coruna rate 1.04 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Betis rate 1.14 and 0.97.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Betis the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna against 1.79 for Real Betis. Deportivo La Coruna's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.97 for Real Betis.