Sabadell vs Oviedo Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Sabadell 3-1 Oviedo.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Sabadell, 29% draw, 37% Oviedo — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oviedo at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sabadell vs Oviedo
Line-ups
- 1Diego FuoliG
- 14Óscar SanzD
- 27José Luis CatalàD
- 6Edgar GonzálezD
- 4Miki CodinaD
- 7Ton RipollM
- 20UrriM
- 8Pere PonsM
- 22Q. LiameedM
- 23J. PriegoF
- 12Gastón VallesF
- 10Ángel BaenaM
- 11Javi LópezM
- 30Xavier Moreno HernándezF
- 24Eneko AguilarM
- 9N. ObolskiyF
- 13J. OrtegaG
- 29P. NuamahF
- 19Y. RahmaniF
- 21Alain RibeiroM
- 13Aarón EscandellG
- 2AisarD
- 12Dani CalvoD
- 23Carlos DomínguezD
- 3Juan CruzD
- 16Aritz AldasoroM
- 5Y. DidiM
- 6Dani VillahermosaM
- 10Alberto ReinaM
- 20Pablo SáenzM
- 24A. IșfanF
- 4David CostasD
- 30Marco EstebanD
- 18V. MingoF
- 11Jacobo GonzálezF
- 8Mikel GotiM
- 21David JiménezD
- 28D. MenendezM
- 17EstanisF
- 32Enzo PerezF
Form going into Sabadell vs Oviedo
Sabadell
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Mallorca13 September 2026
- W3-2Cordoba7 September 2026
- W1-0Almeria29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Castellón23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sporting Gijon17 August 2026
Oviedo
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Valladolid13 September 2026
- D0-0Burgos6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Albacete29 August 2026
- L0-1Leganes22 August 2026
- D0-0Granada CF15 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sabadell had two goals or fewer.
- Oviedo kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Oviedo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sabadell vs Oviedo
- 9 May 2021Oviedo 2–1 SabadellSegunda División
- 6 December 2020Sabadell 0–1 OviedoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Sabadell and Oviedo
Sabadell
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Oviedo
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Domínguez40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sabadell beat Oviedo 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Oviedo at 37% and given a win for Sabadell 34%. The goals: Gastón Joaquín Valles Velázquez 23' for Sabadell, Óscar Sanz 44' for Sabadell, Estanis Pedrola 67' for Oviedo, Ángel Baena 78' for Sabadell.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.